It has been a month since the start of the bells and although some insist that the election results They are resolved, nothing seems to indicate this. There is undoubtedly an advantage of Claudia Sheinbaum in the presidential election but the numbers found in certain polls are implausible. It is not understood that if the President López Obrador is at about 55 approval points, there are those who raise the electoral numbers of Claudia up to 60 or more. It is also unlikely that Claudia has more popularity today than López Obrador did in 2018, when she obtained 53 percent of the votes (and 43 percent for her party in the legislature). The real numbers are closer and we will have to see what results from the debate next Sunday when Claudia and Xochitl Galvez face each other directly for the first time. The campaign of Jorge Alvarez Maynez so far it has managed to be inconsequential.
But let's get down from the presidential election to the states. There will be elections in nine states of the country and at least three of them are apparently lost to Morena, another three are in dispute and three will be for the ruling party. In Guanajuato, Yucatán and Jalisco it is very difficult for him to win Brunette. In Guanajuato, despite the security crisis of the Diego Sinuhé government, everything indicates that the BREAD It is still the majority party. In Yucatán, the PAN party can endorse its position despite defections since Morena has a good candidate. In Jalisco, Pablo Lemus has a solid lead and it will be a state for MC. The only question is whether people will transfer that vote to Maynez or not and everything indicates that those Lemus votes, in the presidential election, could end with Xochitl.
Three states, with many votes and districts, are in dispute. In Mexico City, the decision to displace Omar García Harfuch and place Clara Burgada as a candidate could be very costly for the ruling party, because with some exceptions, the poor selection of candidates for mayors and local deputies has been a norm. Mexico City is and will be highly contested and the chances of Santiago Taboada winning are real.
In Veracruz too Brunette He chose very poorly: not only has the Cuitláhuac García government had terrible results in almost all areas, but also the candidate Rocío Nahle, despite having considerable resources, is not convincing from within Morena. What happened in La Parroquia where she had to leave after being booed by the diners is a paradigm of how her campaign is going. If we add to that the complaints about its properties, that Dos Bocas cost three times what was budgeted and has not finished starting and that it is not from Veracruz, the scenario is not the best. And in front of him is Pepe Yunes, a good candidate, recognized in the state and who can add.
In Moreloshe disaster of Cuauhtémoc Blanco It is insurmountable and the opposition candidacy of Lucy Meza makes it very difficult for Morena to win. Asking for the continuity of the fourth transformation in Morelos is almost an insult to the citizens. These three states could be key in the election, not only in the presidential election, but in the formation of Congress, because there are many districts and many votes that they concentrate.
Three states will undoubtedly be won by Morena: Chiapas, despite the terrible government of Rutilio Escandón, is an entity where President López Obrador's popularity is through the sky. The same happens in Tabasco and to a lesser extent in Puebla.
An old American senator said that all politics is local. It is not always true, but in these elections the local factor will be more important than ever. It is also said that social support will be key and if we base ourselves on the survey published by El Financiero on the meaning of the vote of those who receive this support and those who do not, it is true.
But security will also be decisive: at least a third of the national territory is under criminal control, and not only are candidates murdered, but the population is also extorted, robbed, and plundered. We have not seen that level of criminal empowerment in so many simultaneous local areas and who knows how it will influence, in one sense or another, when it comes to voting. But it is not an inconsequential factor.
Gisela's murder
The murder of Gisela Gaytán, Morena's candidate for municipal president of Celaya, has unleashed a shower of mutual accusations about who was responsible for guaranteeing her safety, which the candidate had requested from the authorities, especially after the original confrontations she had. with other Morena groups and due to the extensive criminal presence in Celaya.
And as in many other things in our country, what happened is that no one ends up taking charge of security completely, and there are so many entities involved, that what ends up being imposed is bureaucracy and impunity.
Here we had already anticipated it: the scheme to guarantee the security of the candidates is useless, it is bureaucratic and with poorly distributed responsibilities. Because? Because there is no true study of regional and local risks, there is no intelligence monitoring of the main candidates who proselytize in those areas and the responsibility of requesting security is left to the candidates and parties. The federal security secretary, the INE, the state electoral bodies, the local police and the applicants themselves intervene, who are the ones who must decide whether or not they run risks. Any security request goes through a long bureaucratic stretch that moves further and further away from the real times of a campaign. It happened with Gisela and with 16 other murdered candidates.
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