Six months of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza: who benefits from a regional escalation with Iran?

Six months after the State of Israel received the worst terrorist attack in its history, when militants from the Palestinian Hamas movement managed to violate its security and murder 1,200 of its citizens and kidnap 253, the Government of this country is preparing for what considers an “inevitable” offensive by Iran, in which it can be the tragic regional escalation of a conflict that was initially located in the Gaza Strip, but which, as seen in recent days, could have developments and unpredictable consequences throughout the Middle East.

Since that fateful October 7, and as an Israeli military response to the unexpected assault, more than 33,000 Palestinians have died (12,000 children and 9,000 women, according to the Hamas Ministry of Health), more than 75,000 have been injured, 72 percent of Homes have been damaged, public services and education infrastructure has been hit by 19 percent, and 9 percent of commercial and industrial buildings have been affected.

World Bank estimates speak of 18.5 billion dollars in damage to infrastructure, that is, 97 percent of gross domestic product generated in 2022 in the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

Worse still, more than half of the Palestinian population is on the brink of famine, more than a million have lost their homes, and 75 percent have been forced into internal displacement in what is one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. recent times.

But all this tragic balance could become a worse scenario if, as Western intelligence services fear, Iran prepares for a “significant” response after last Monday's Israeli attack against the Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria), an action in in which seven senior members of the Revolutionary Guard died.

“We are on alert.” The teams of President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “are in regular and continuous contact (…). The United States fully supports Israel's defense against Iran. “I will not go further given the sensitivity of the issue and the information based on intelligence sources,” a senior Washington government official told the media in response to the threats issued from Tehran: “Israel is going to pay for the attack on our consulate. He will be punished and will repent for this crime and other similar ones, with the help of God,” said Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei..

In fact, the chain cnn He pointed out that an Iranian bombing of Israeli territory would be one of the worst scenarios contemplated by the US Executive, since it would cause a rapid escalation of tension in the region.

If it is already clear that there would be an attack, the big question is how? Will it be an unprecedented direct offensive with ballistic missiles from Iran, or the usual one, through its armed satellites in the region, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen or Islamists in Iraq and Syria?

Given this dramatic perspective, The Israeli army suspended vacation permits for its troops, called up Air Force reservists and reinforced its anti-missile defenses, while citizens stocked up on water, medicine, food, fuel and power plants, while reconditioning the bomb shelters that almost all the cities have. residences.

While it is true that Iran has been one of the sides of the equation since the beginning of the war because its satellites have maintained constant exchanges of aggression, why would Israel want to open another battle front?

'Strategic patience'

“We must maintain 'strategic patience' and not attack Israel directly,” political analyst Nosratolah Tajik told the newspaper. Etemad. It refers to what the Iranians have named the Iranian foreign strategy with respect to Israel of not falling into provocations because any direct attack would put them in a confrontation with Washington.

“Israel wants Iran to react, for the situation to worsen and the scope of the war to expand, but Iran's interests are not in direct confrontation,” the commentator added. A point with which the president of Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer, agrees: “Iran does not want to get directly involved in a war with Israel (or the US). “Israel is testing that premise,” the American analyst wrote in X.

Iran does not want to get directly involved in a war with Israel (or the US). Israel is testing that premise.

But on the other hand, the ayatollah regime is under enormous pressure to restore its “power of geopolitical deterrence” after its response to the 2020 US drone assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the leading Iranian general, was perceived as lukewarm. of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard.

Frank Gardner, BBC security affairs correspondent, recalls that in the Soleimani episode a “catastrophic response from Iran was expected (…). But in the end it turned out that it had an effect that de-escalated the operations of the Revolutionary Guard after the elimination of its most competent agent.”

“It could be a major escalation. By targeting an Iranian diplomatic premises, Israel crossed a line.”points out analyst Ali Vaez, from the International Crisis Group.

Several analysts consulted by EL TIEMPO agree that expanding the range of the conflict in Gaza could be a kind of very risky move or a flight forward by Benjamin Netanyahu's government. It is explained by the fact that Israel is running out of time to fulfill its strategic objective of annihilating the military power of Hamas in the face of intense international pressure for a ceasefire, and even internal pressure from the relatives of those kidnapped by the Islamist group to privilege their liberation over the objective of war; The US is raising the tone and conditioning its support on putting the safety of civilians first, especially after the “mistaken” murder of the seven World Central Kitchen (WCK) aid workers.

In fact, and against all calculations, US earlier abstained from voting on ceasefire resolution in Security Council, with which it was approved; and on the other hand, the imminent famine in Gaza would take away more moral weight from the Israeli argument of 'self-defense'.

America's dilemma

But if a direct conflict breaks out with Iran, All of these considerations would probably take a backseat and the US would have to, at election time and with a complex outlook for Biden, come to the aid of its historical ally.

“Under pressure from the Americans, Netanyahu is running out of time to continue the war and is turning to Lebanon and Syria,” explains Nick Heras. “Netanyahu expects an upcoming regional war with Iran” in which he “supposes the US will join him,” says the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy expert.

With this panorama in perspective, it is increasingly clear that the conflict in Gaza must be seen in the framework of a larger confrontation between Israel and Iran, in which, as has happened for decades, the Palestinian people are caught in the middle of two larger fires. , unable to decide his future and with the risk that his tragedy will fade into the background.

EDUARD SOTO – DEPUTY EDITOR OF EL TIEMPO