Russian attack Lavrov’s comments on Putin’s good health can only add to rumors, the researcher said

Abroad|The Russian attack

All people in their minds can see with their own eyes that of the Russian president Vladimir Putin there is no illness or discomfort of any kind. This is roughly what the Russian Foreign Minister said Sergei Lavrov on Sunday when asked about speculation and rumors about Putin’s health.

In his comment, Lavrov made it clear that according to Russia’s official truth, Putin is perfectly healthy. Speculations about the president’s state of health, he said, leave “the conscience of those who spread such rumors.”

“You can see him on your screens, read and listen to his speeches,” Lavrov said.

Minister of Foreign Affairs comments on Putin’s health rose to big news earlier this week. This was the first time in a long time that Russia’s top leadership had commented on ongoing rumors about the president’s state of health.

In the past, during the war in Ukraine, the issue has been publicly stated mainly by a Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskovwho has praised Putin’s “excellent” state of health.

Rumors of Putin’s health and various diseases, such as possible cancer surgery, has been enough lately. Attempts have been made to look for signs of even a life-threatening illness in Putin’s public appearances, the physical nature and behavior seen in them, sometimes on very shaky grounds.

One the essential source of the rumors has apparently been a former professor and political scientist at Mgimo University Valeri Solovei61.

In May, HS’s foreign supplier Pekka Hakala wrote in his commentthat the Solovs have a “strong tendency to public carnival”. At the same time, however, it should be noted that there has also been a bad stance in his flowing comments in the past.

All that is certain is that there is no confirmed information about Putin’s deterioration or illness. Rumors are rumors. In Ukraine, for example, and in the Western countries that sympathize with it, they are spreading at the moment, also because people want Putin to leave the grip of power.

On Tuesday, a historian Samu Nyström pointed out on Twitterthat similar rumors circulated during World War II Adolf of Hitler.

Lavrovin public statement on rumors is still relevant, says senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Jussi Lassila.

“This is forcing the Kremlin to comment on the matter, which only adds to rumors. And when the Kremlin publicly says Putin is perfectly fine, it puts more pressure on Putin. He has to appear often in public and prove the words with his deeds, ”says Lassila.

According to Lassila, Putin has its own weight in the past. The president is used to being seen in machoto-style propaganda images, where he fishes in a shirt, among other things. Of course, the natural explanation for the scarcity of shirtless fishing images in recent times may also be the aging of Putin.

“In the past, Putin’s efforts have been to look as energetic and youthful as possible,” says Lassila.

Lassilan considers Putin’s ability to lead his country “in the case of Russia it is perfectly justified to consider”.

“It is an indisputable fact that the whole system is unhealthily dependent on Putin. In order for things to change in any way, it requires Putin to step aside, ”Lassila says.

“However, it is not automatic for change to be better. It could just as well take Russia in an even worse direction. ”

Lassila points out that Russia has had a strong culture of secrecy for decades, in which, for example, efforts have been made to cover up the weaknesses of leaders. This was also the case in the Soviet Union.

According to Lassila, it is possible that the rumors circulating now may remind people of the Soviet era to the people who were alive at the time. For Putin, that is not good news, because his strongest supporters are among the same, Lassila says.

If Putin would suddenly leave Russia – for one reason or another – according to Lassila, it could know very radical changes in the “medium term”.

“Russia has been a leader-dependent system throughout its history, both in the Soviet Union and in tsarist times. Putin has already been one of the longest rulers, and his strong position has been based on his ability to be a kind of common lowest denominator for very controversial actors within Russia, ”he says.

“Putin’s departure would almost certainly bring a power struggle to the surface, and his successor would have a full job to achieve a position similar to what Putin has had.”

Lassila recalls that in the Soviet Union there were Joseph Stalin after a long power struggle before Nikita Khrushchev rose to power. Likewise Mikhail Gorbachev the rise to power was preceded by a long internal struggle.

Already, many names about Putin’s potential successors have been used in speculation. For example, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council has been on the agenda Nikolai PatrushevPrime Minister Mikhail Mišustinformer president Dmitry Medvedevformer Prime Minister Sergei Kirijenko and the Speaker of the House of Commons Vyacheslav Volodin. The problem for many is that they do not enjoy considerable popularity among the Russian elite either, which ultimately matters more than the opinion of the people.

Lassila considers it possible that when Putin resigns at some point, his successor may be in office for a very short time.

This has happened before. For example Konstantin Chernenko led the Soviet Union for a year from 1984 to 1985 before his death.