Russia – Ukraine: recognizing the separatists is the key to the invasion

Russia’s threat of recognizing the separatist territories in eastern Ukraine is a double-edged swordcapable of forcing the relaunch of the peace process or destroying it forever.

(Read: Putin admits that there is “an aggravation of the situation” in eastern Ukraine)

Amid tensions with Western countriesRussian deputies called on Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to recognize the independence of the pro-Russian territories of the Ukrainian Donbasa mining and industrial basin bordering Russia that includes the self-proclaimed “republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk.

(Be sure to read: Alert in Ukraine: tense day due to warnings between Russia and the US)

Vladimir Putin however, he reacted to the call of his deputies by saying that he wanted to stick to the Minsk agreements “until the end”. But at the same time, he stressed that “the vast majority” of Russians sympathized with the Russian-speaking Donbass who, according to him, are victims of a “genocide” orchestrated by Kiev.

But the political agreement that would allow the conflict to end is at an impasse. Each side accuses each other of blocking the peace process. A Russian recognition of the separatists would mean the end of this process since the Minsk agreements aim to return these areas to Ukraine’s sovereignty.

“Moscow would be fully responsible for the destruction of the Minsk agreements,” he analyzed for the AFP Ukrainian diplomacy. This “would be an impossible situation, a form of unarmed aggression and unarmed dismantling of the unity and integrity of Ukraine,” summed up the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Yves Le Drian.

How has the case progressed and what background does it have?

The scenario has a precedent: in 2008, the Kremlin recognized the independence of two pro-Russian breakaway “republics” in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetiaafter a lightning war against Tiflis, a former Soviet republic that, like Ukraine, aspires to enter NATO.

In eight years, the war between Kiev and Moscow-backed separatists left more than 14,000 dead. The violence of the clashes, however, subsided when the Minsk agreements were signed in 2015 between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by France and Germany.

However, during the present conflict Russia also distributed 600,000 Russian passports in these two self-proclaimed “republics”. According to experts, with the threat of recognizing the separatist territoriesMoscow wants to send a signal to Kiev that the end of the concessions has come.

“It is a way of saying ‘our patience has limits’, and that if the Minsk agreements are boycotted, if they are not applied, other methods will have to be used,” he told the AFP Fyodor Lukianov, political scientist close to the circles of Russian power.

What is at stake is Ukraine’s reluctance to adopt a special status and organize elections in Donbas. Kiev argues that the separatist forces must first leave the region.

For Ukraine, Moscow tries to strengthen its influence in this area and blocks the application of the Minsk agreements by wanting to impose a direct dialogue between Kiev and the separatists. But the Ukrainian authorities reject a dialogue in these circumstances, alleging that Moscow is the instigator of the conflict and not a mediator.

This week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz insisted that Ukraine must draw up the necessary bills as soon as possible, recalling that President Volodymyr Zelensky had promised to do so.

“Sooner or later, Ukraine will present the bills,” Ukrainian negotiator Sergei Garmash told AFP, “but given the blockade created by Russian demands, their examination will take years.”

Although the Kremlin is increasing the pressure, it has not yet reached the point of signing the death certificate of the peace process, says expert Fyodor Lukianov. In his opinion, Russia should not deprive itself of an “instrument of influence on the future of Ukraine and, more broadly, on the question of European security.”

Moscow’s ultimate goal is to force the hand of the West to stop NATO’s expansion into Ukraine. In a context of tensions and fears of a Russian invasion, diplomatic efforts have intensified in recent weeks to relaunch peace negotiations, with meetings in Paris and Berlin. But according to all parties to the conflict, there have been no results yet.

Evacuations in conflict zones

the self-proclaimed Donetsk separatist republic (DPR)in eastern Ukraine, announced this Friday the beginning of a “massive” evacuation of the population to Russian territory, fearing a possible attack by the forces of the Ukrainian state, which has denied that it has plans of this type.

The leader of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, said that “as of today a massive centralized departure of the population to the Russian Federation has been organized, first of women, children and the elderly,” according to the official Russian agency. TASS.

In this regard, places of reception and reception have been determined with the leadership of Russia in the Rostov region, the source specified. According to the Donetsk Ministry of Emergency Situations, about 700,000 residents will be evacuated to Rostov, the Russian agency reported interface.

“The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, will soon give an order to the Army for an offensive, to implement a plan to invade the territory of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk,” Pushilin said, always according to Russian media.

For its part, the self-proclaimed separatist republic of Luhansk (LPR) followed in the footsteps of neighboring Donetsk and ordered the mass evacuation of civilians to Russian territory, fearing an attack by the Ukrainian Army, which this Friday denied that it had plans of this type.

“In order to avoid victims among the civilian population, I call on the inhabitants of the republic who are not mobilized or involved in the basic services of the social and civil infrastructure to move as soon as possible to the territory of Russia,” said the leader of the RPL, Leonid Pásechnik, quoted by the Russian agency interface.

The pro-Russian leader ordered the local administration, the police and the emergency services to guarantee an “organized evacuation” of the social infrastructure and help the population to move to the border posts.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Friday in the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) that Kiev is not planning any violent action against the separatist territories, because it is committed to a peaceful solution to the conflict.

The call of Germany and France

France and Germany on Friday urged Russia to use its influence with the
separatists from eastern Ukraine in order to “encourage restraint and contribute to a de-escalation” in the region.

The heads of German and French diplomacy, Annalena Baerbock and Jean-Yves Le Drian, point out in a statement their “concern” about “the multiplication of violations of the ceasefire” and about the risk of “incidents that serve as a pretext for a military escalation”.

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