Russia sets its sights on Antarctica and could change the global energy map

Not only that. The discovery made by Russia is equivalent to the crude oil reserves of Saudi Arabia and Venezuela combined. So what is hidden on the frozen continent are more than colossal resources that could change the fate of the planet, or stay underground preserving what little balance it has left.

The matter is not minor, nor is it new. The polar research vessel Alexander Karpinsky, operating for the Russian geological agency Rosgeo, reported in 2020 on the identification of some 70 billion tons of oil and gas (equivalent to 511 billion barrels) in the subsoil of the Sea of Weddell, an Antarctic territory that is claimed by Argentina, Chile and the United Kingdom.

“The data obtained during the new expedition will substantially clarify our expectations regarding the prospects for oil and gas in the seas of the Antarctic shelf,” said Sergey Kozlov, chief geologist at PMGE, a subsidiary of Rosgeo, in that February 2020.

The issue, however, acquired new relevance and concern since mid-May, when the Brics group (made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) raised the issue by announcing on its X account that “Russia discovers reserve of oil and gas in British Antarctic territory”, referring to the Karpinsky investigations.

(We recommend: Ukraine celebrates the authorization of the conditional use of weapons by the United States against Russian territory).

The detail is that the white continent is not the property of anyone, but has been governed since 1959 by the Antarctic Treaty, an international agreement that prohibits any type of mining or hydrocarbon exploitation and only allows scientific research.

So the resources found are not from Russia or any other country.
However, since it is Moscow, the alarms always go off. The British newspaper The Telegraph released a report that revealed that in a parliamentary session several legislators expressed their fears to the United Kingdom Government about a possible Moscow oil operation in Antarctic territory.

Jane Rumble, head of the polar regions department of the British Foreign Office, assured in the House of Commons that there is no evidence to indicate a violation of the treaty by Russia, which is a signatory of the treaty and has seven scientific stations in the region.

“The Russians have been doing a lot of research for several years on natural resources on the continent. In fact, they found a sea under Antarctica,” he comments to Trade the engineer Fernando Jiménez, director of the master’s degree in Energy at the PUCP and former representative of Peru before the Antarctic Environmental Protection Committee.

And he adds: “The world’s largest reserves of natural gas are in Russia. “To now add the possibility of that amount of hydrocarbons on the other side of the planet is to make them the owners of the key.”

Antarctica is almost the size of all of South America and, for now, remains the only intangible place on the planet, but it is also suffering the ravages of global warming with the faster melting of its glaciers.

Therefore, the preservation of the continent—which has a very fragile ecosystem—is essential to not further alter the world’s climate patterns. Although when the Antarctic Treaty was signed, environmental care was not on the agenda, since then it was considered a place dedicated to science, something substantial especially in the context of the Cold War, but also to address territorial claims that emerged since beginning of the 20th century.

Of the 12 countries that signed the agreement in 1959, seven claim part of the territory – Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway and Great Britain – but their requests have been put on hold while the document, which is considered one of the best-developed international treaties in the world, remains in force under the same terms.

Following British concern, President Joe Biden signed a document that reaffirms the United States’ commitment to protecting the environment and scientific research in Antarctica, while the Chilean president, Gabriel Boric, indicated that he will not accept any violation of the agreement or any commercial exploitation on the continent.

Russia, obviously, points out that its studies in Antarctica are exclusively scientific in nature, but concern is already on the table about some plan that the Kremlin has in its hands, in another global geopolitical match that could be played in the not too distant future, especially when it comes to resources more than millionaires.

Interview with engineer Fernando Jiménez, director of the master’s degree in Energy at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru (PUCP):

Is it possible that Russia was able to find that immense amount of oil and gas?
There are three types of reserves: proven, probable and possible. The proven ones are those in which the resources available were perfectly located. Therefore, I believe that this case is in the range of possible, due to the type of tests and studies that have been done. We must not forget that millions of years ago Antarctica was a jungle, and since it was, all the organic waste accumulates and there is the possibility of there being this amount of hydrocarbons. But a finer prospection (search and quantification) would have to be done to determine how much there is. But even if it is half, it is a spectacular figure.

There is a ban on any type of mineral and hydrocarbon exploitation in Antarctica. What would happen, on an environmental level, if that finally happened?
Beyond the environmental impact on Antarctica itself, what would be most worrying would be the planetary impact that the exploitation of these resources would mean, since the price of fuel would plummet and the use of hydrocarbons would be further encouraged, which is precisely what we are trying to stop so as not to accentuate greenhouse gases.

What is the limit between scientific research and mining prospecting activities?
Under the umbrella of research, prospecting is carried out, that is, it is quantified. This is a somewhat blurred line since research implies knowledge. But as we get to know a territory we realize that we have resources that we can exploit, then things change in nuance.

The signatories
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The agreement was signed on December 1, 1959 by Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Chile, France, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, South Africa, the United Kingdom, the United States and Russia. Currently there are 56 signatory countries, including China, India and Peru.
Regulations
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The treaty establishes that no country is the owner of the territory and guarantees freedom for scientific research, but does not allow any type of military activity or prospecting (search and quantification) or exploitation of minerals or hydrocarbon resources. It also indicates a regime of international cooperation and environmental protection.

Validity
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It is valid indefinitely and has not been amended, but starting in 2048, any of the consultative parties may request its review, with approval by a relative majority.

AUTHOR: GISELLA LÓPEZ LENCI
EL COMERCIO (PERU) – GDA
@the Peru Commerce

​This article was published in the Sunday Edition of EL TIEMPO