Ms. Prokopenko, you were employed as a consultant at the Russian Central Bank until February 2022. You now live in Berlin and work as an expert on Russian economics in various think tanks. How did you decide to leave Russia?
I actually had no plans to emigrate. But remaining a part of the system was also impossible for me after Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine.
The head of the central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, is said to reject the war. She and many of her employees are supposed to be liberal, like a large part of the government's “economic bloc.” If that is the case, why do these people continue to support Putin's policies?
More people resigned from the central bank after the invasion than from other agencies, such as the finance or economics ministries. But at the same time there is a kind of “corporate loyalty”. Even though none of those I spoke to are pro-war, many still support the leadership at the top – both that of the country and that of the central bank. Anti-Western propaganda also plays a role. Even if the technocrats do not consume them directly, they unconsciously become their victims. Sanctions against Russian officials have increased anti-Western sentiment. And then there is the phenomenon of “double consciousness” known from Soviet times. At that time it was said that people behaved completely differently in the factory than in their kitchen. Now it is said that everyone is somehow for peace, but the West is not innocent either. That's why many officials have decided to stay with the majority.
Could the West have persuaded these people to make a different decision?
In any case, the West has never made them an offer along the lines of: Condemn the war and we will offer you this and that. So people were mostly afraid of going to prison if they condemned the war. And they learned that many who once worked in the Russian public sector are now unable to find work in other countries because they are condemned for their previous employment. This adds grist to Putin's mill, who makes people believe that a Russian can only prosper on Russian territory.
Is it true that the technocrats saved the Russian economy from collapse last year?
Of course, there is no doubt about it at all. The technocrats have been living in permanent crisis mode for years. Since the 2008 financial crisis, there have been four crises in Russia, which is a lot. This resulted in Russia having high reserves and supplies in storage. Under normal circumstances one would say that this is not very effective and prevents growth because, for example, companies invest less and expand in anticipation of new crises. But if the whole world is cutting ties and new delivery routes have to be set up extremely quickly, it can be the salvation. In this sense, the technocrats were more helpful allies for Putin than his generals.
Alexandra Prokopenko
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Image: private
They also deal with another group of the elite, the oligarchs. Have the personal sanctions against you achieved anything?
If the goal of the sanctions was to influence the president and change his behavior, then they have failed. Perhaps there would have been better results if the sanctions had provided a way out for the oligarchs. These are business people, they understand the language of trade. But given the lack of clarity from the West, they have opted for “negative loyalty”. They don't like what's happening at all, none of them expected the war and none of them wanted it. But with Putin they are more likely to know where they stand. That's why they decided to stay on his side.
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