Russian oil continues to flow through the seas even though the West has redoubled its zeal with its sanctions. As in the game of ‘cat and mouse’, each blow by the West to the Russian trade in crude oil and derivatives is followed by a cunning maneuver by Russia, Moscow taking advantage of any loopholefailure or complicity from their geopolitical rivals.
The latest trick of the Kremlin has been the discovery of a new ‘dark spot’ in the Mediterranean in which to carry out secret oil transfers through the already famous technique of ship-to-ship (ship to ship), a dangerous procedure to be able to ‘strain’ the sanctioned Russian oil that entails significant environmental risks, since a spill is more than feasible.
With this technique, the oil that travels in what is known as the shadow fleet or ghost fleet made up of old oil tankers reconditioned by Moscow and that travel without Western insurance in order to avoid the cap of 60 dollars per barrel of Russian crude oil imposed by the United States. and its European partners.
These hidden offshore oil exchanges are now taking place in a new enclave off the coast of Greece after the Greek country decreed military maneuvers who blocked this illicit activity, which had been taking place in the Gulf of Laconia.
According to data from the analysis company Vortexa, near the islands of Lesbos and Chiosin the Aegean Sea, is where about a million barrels a month of diesel, fuel oil and other petroleum products are now being exchanged. The area has become popular just after the Greek military began carrying out maneuvers around the Gulf of Laconia.
From Bloomberg They report that these furtive exchanges continue to take place in the Gulf of Laconia despite the nearby presence of the Greek military, however, the pace has decreased considerably. Since the maneuvers of the Greek Navy did not reach the aforementioned narrow strip of water, that is where these oil ‘dumps’ are now focused.
According to information from the US financial agency, the transfers ship-to-ship They have also become common in front of the Italian port of Augusta (on the eastern coast of Sicily) since May, when the Greek Navy began its exercises. Some maneuvers that have recently been extended until mid-March.
Russia and its ghost fleet explore different corners in the Mediterranean to carry out these dangerous operations. Now it’s Greece, but a few weeks ago it was Spain (again). A cargo of Russian oil was transferred between ocean tankers near Ceuta at the beginning of November, reestablishing this clandestine practice that the Government of Spain believed it had stopped. A Suezmax Sakarya-class tanker left the waters of Ceuta, a once popular destination for the transfer of Russian oil, after having transferred its crude to a larger tanker. The ship disappeared from digital tracking systems for about 60 hours, a period in which it is believed that the dangerous oil transfer operation took place.
No cargo transfers with Ural crude oil have been carried out near Ceuta since August 2023, after Spain warned local companies about this practice. However, the transfer has been occurring around the world, from the eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf of Oman.
Greece again
It is not the first time that the Russian oil trade finds in Greece a unexpected ‘ally’. Last year, information began to emerge that pointed to the almighty Greek shipping sector (the country is the largest shipowner in the world by deadweight tonnage or safe loading capacity of a vessel) as support in the logistics of transporting Russian oil through the seas around the world.
Attracted by the possibility of huge profits after the energy markets were convulsed at the start of the war in Ukraine, some Greek shipping companies left reputational fears behind and decided to continue transporting Russian crude oil despite the strong support of the European Union for the US in the application of the sanctions. Likewise, they were exceptional sellers of old oil tankers so that the Kremlin could continue with its objective.
One of the voices that has most insisted on these facts is that of Robin Brooksmanaging director of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), who has been denouncing the situation for some time. “Western companies have abandoned Russia en masse, but not the Greek shipping oligarchs, who moved their ships to help Putin sell his oil around the world. They then fought against the G-7 price cap and are now selling their old ships to Putin for his shadow fleet. Why does the EU put up with this?” the analyst lamented a few months ago.
“It is the EU’s tankers – from Greece – that transport Russian oil and keep Putin’s war machine going. The EU has the power to stop this at a stroke, plunging Russia into chaos as it struggles to close its oil wells,” the economist continued. only when the US Treasury stood firm and expanded the focus on these shipping companies, commercial movement began to decrease. However, Moscow has not stopped finding solutions.
The oil export trick
Despite everything, the Russian crude oil exports by sea have fallen in recent weeks, with shipments from the country’s Baltic ports well below last month’s (September) rate. Four-week average flows fell by about 150,000 barrels per day in the period through Nov. 17. This marks the biggest drop in weekly exports since early July. However, this decline is still a miragesince the Russian fleet is exporting in greater quantities, something even more valuable.
At the same time that there was a drop in oil shipments, Bloomberg announced that shipments of refined products were hitting recent highs, averaging 2.33 million barrels per day in the first 15 days of this month, according to data compiled by Vortexa. That’s about 409,000 barrels, or 21% more than average flows for the same period in October. Average daily volumes so far this month have been the highest since February. Russia exports less oil, but sells more refined products for which it obtains a higher margin, especially now that the price of crude oil is relatively cheap.
Elevated fuel exports have been led by a rebound in diesel and gasoline shipments. Diesel and gasoil exports rose 23% from the previous monthly average to around 875,000 barrels per day, the highest level since July. Most of the additional barrels are headed to Türkiye and Asia. Naphtha shipments have increased 50% from the previous monthly average to about 524,000 barrels a day, the highest level since March 2023. While Asia remains the main destination, more shipments are also heading to Brazil and Brazil this month. the United Arab Emirates.
Fuel oil exports also increased to 711,000 barrels per day. Exports of raw materials for refineries, such as vacuum diesel, increased 9% to 192,000 barrels per day.
Russia continues to flout Western sanctions. The Kremlin’s ideas and tricks have no limits, while the enthusiasm of NATO countries to truly prevent Russian oil from crossing the seas seems to be gradually dissipating as the war in Ukraine leaves the media spotlight. Furthermore, the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House It could be an important turning point for the conflict and, ultimately, for Russian exports.
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