Ukraine
Analysis
In general, the Russian military strategy in this war –Russia continues to call it a special military operation– aims to achieve three objectives: that the Ukrainian government recognizes the Crimean peninsula as Russian; recognize the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics as independent territories; and that it include in its Constitution a status of “neutrality” that prevents it from joining any Western bloc, especially NATO.
Bearing in mind the objectives, the Russian military authorities proposed a short-term blitzkrieg-type campaign, in which they established four main axes of attack: in the North, from Belarusian territory, with the aim of seizing Kiev; in the Northeast, from Járkov and its surroundings towards the West, to surround the capital; in the East, from the Donbass region –including the territories of Donetsk and Lugansk–, already controlled by pro-Russian separatists, to dominate the entire region; and in the South, trying to control the land corridor that runs parallel to the Sea of Azov, with the intention of linking Donbass with Crimea, without discounting the possibility of reaching Odessa.
Fifteen days after the start of the war, the blitzrieg has failed for at least two important reasons. On the one hand, the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian people – the Kremlin expected it to happen as in the annexation of Crimea, where there was hardly any opposition; and, on the other, the existence at this time of winter of the rasputitsa or ‘sea of mud’, which seriously harms the advance of armored and mechanized means.
Today, in a scenario of lethal bombing of several cities, the situation in the four axes of attack is as follows: in the North, Russian forces are close to Kiev; in the Northeast, Kharkov is almost destroyed and Russian forces advance towards the Dnieper; in the east of the country, the Ukrainian Army maintains positions; and in the South, the axis that has advanced the most, Putin’s troops have already taken the city of Jarson and are preparing to attack Odessa. The planned objectives are still a long way off.
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