A new project by Vladimir Putin, in partnership with the Chinese dictatorship, seeks to connect the annexed Ukrainian region of Crimea to Russia via the seabed, in an attempt to establish a new transport route that would be protected from Kiev's attacks. The information was released by the Ukrainian government, based on the interception of conversations between Russian and Chinese executives with government links.
The plan comes amid Moscow's growing concern about the security of the 17-kilometer bridge over the Kerch Strait, strategic in the Russian Army's logistics, but which has already been the target of bombings from Ukraine on two occasions.
The new partnership between the countries shows Putin's willingness to maintain control of the peninsula, which he illegally annexed in 2014, however, it puts Beijing in a vulnerable situation, as the country has never officially recognized the annexation of Ukrainian territory and cooperation in this sense, it would bring political and financial risks to Xi Jinping's government, which could suffer US sanctions on its state-owned companies.
According to the American newspaper The Washington Postwhich exclusively received emails exchanged between those involved, one of China's largest construction companies gave the “green light” to participate in the project.
The authenticity of the messages was confirmed through other information obtained separately by the newspaper, including business registration files showing the creation of a Sino-Russian consortium involving individuals mentioned in the messages about Crimea.
The tunnel construction plan also comes at a time when Russia is moving forward with other infrastructure projects in territories occupied since 2014 or “confiscated” since last year's invasion. Recent satellite images showed new railway lines along the coast of the Sea of Azov, part of a busy land route that also links Russia to the peninsula.
The latest construction involves companies associated with Arkady Rotenberg, a Russian oligarch allied with Putin, who has been sponsored several times by the Kremlin, such as when promoting the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. The 71-year-old businessman has acquired extensive properties in Crimea since the illegal annexation and his contractor was key in planning and surveying the Kerch bridge.
According to the Post, the exchange of messages also reveals China's efforts to keep the project secret. One of the emails mentions that the Chinese Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), a Chinese state-owned company, will participate in the project only under a “strict provision of total confidentiality” and with the replacement of the business name in the contracts.
The intercepted communication also mentions a Chinese bank, which would be willing to convert its dollar funds into rubles for transfer to Crimea, in order to finance the consortium.
The CRCC already has important agreements with Russia through projects including an extension of the Moscow metro system, completed in 2021.
The expert on Russia and Western sanctions at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Maria Shagina, explained to The Post that “a tunnel connecting Crimea to Moscow would be a physical extension of the narrative that Putin defends”.
Experts consulted by the American newspaper stated that the construction of a tunnel under the Kerch Strait is “technically viable” and China is one of the countries with the most experience and equipment needed for the undertaking. Despite this, it would not be an easy, quick or cheap task to build.
Another obstacle to the project, due to the risk of Ukrainian attacks, would be the use of traditional tunneling technology rather than more up-to-date construction methods that involve giant ships dredging the water's surface.
An engineer with extensive experience in designing tunnel projects said this would be a “high-risk operation” for Putin and Xi Jinping.
“Building a tunnel through the Kerch Strait would cost at least $5 billion [R$ 24,6 bilhões] and would require Russian troops to protect not only the strait, but also the production sites it needs on land,” the expert explained.
Crimea remains a top interest for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has repeatedly promised to recover the peninsula. Kiev's most recent attacks aimed to cut off the main logistical routes used to supply Russian troops from the occupied region.
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