Ukraine is throwing its reserves at the front near Pokrovsk and stopping the Russian offensive. The question is whether this will gain them more than just time.
Pokrovsk – “Not so long ago there were public discussions that the deployment of additional brigades in the direction of Pokrovsk would not make much difference,” the Ukrainian analysis group judged Frontelligence Insight“And yet we now see that it makes a difference.” This “difference” apparently consists in the fact that Ukraine’s reserves would at least delay the advance of Vladimir Putin’s invasion troops on this front. This is what the magazine Forbes – and at the same time stresses that the situation remains critical and that the Ukrainian troops still have their backs against the wall.
No one should expect immediate dramatic changes around Pokrovsk, warns Forbes-Author David Axe.
Most recently, the ZDF pointed out that the metropolis, which has a population of 60,000, is of vital importance as a logistical hub for both warring parties; but the resistance of Ukraine must be considered so massive that “a long and hard siege” can be expected, as the ZDF in prospect. Forbes-Author Axe currently claims that Ukraine has not only been able to mass enough troops for a counter-offensive on Kursk, but has also been able to deploy significant reserves against Pokrovsk.
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“But although the Ukrainians deployed a dozen battalions from about eight brigades for their surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, they appeared to have kept four or five brigades – each with up to 2,000 soldiers and hundreds of vehicles – in reserve. Russian propagandist Yevgeny Norin described these units as ‘fairly intact and well-equipped,'” writes Axe. At the same time, the news magazine suspects MirrorPresident Volodymyr Selenskyj had gambled too high with his daring ride to Kursk.
“The Russians are trying to infiltrate like water. They’re trying everywhere, and when they find a crack, they’re pushing further. If they’re pushed back, they’re just trying somewhere else.”
MirrorAuthor Christian Esch bases this on the ten kilometers of territory that the Russian invasion troops are said to have gained last month – including the possibility of reaching the southern border of Pokrovsk with artillery. “The Russian offensive in the Donbass is thus threatening the last large city in the west of the Donetsk region, a strategically important transport hub – behind it begins the Dnepropetrovsk Oblast,” writes Esch. He claims that nowhere else is the front in the Donbass under as much pressure as there.
The new dynamic on this front sees Forbes by bringing in reservists. David Axe reports on the relocation of an assault brigade of the National Guard: The Kara-Dag Brigade was relocated from the south to the east to save Pokrovsk. This large unit is “a paramilitary police force, but the requirements of war have forced the brigade to fight like an army brigade,” writes Axe. While a NATO brigade has between 1,500 and 5,000 troops, this large unit in Ukraine can have up to 8,000 troops – the reserve for the Pokrovsk front is also said to be equipped with T-64 tanks.
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This apparently enables the brigade to intervene effectively in the fighting. “‘Exactly what was predicted is happening – the Ukrainian armed forces have begun a counterattack,’ reported a Russian blogger. And this contributes to the stabilization of the front line – at least for the moment,” writes ForbesNevertheless, the situation remains “extremely difficult”, as President Volodymyr Selenskyj is said to have described this section of the front; ZDF.
The capture of the city of Pokrovsk is therefore considered an important interim objective for Vladimir Putin. ZDF Analysts surveyed see a similar situation emerging as in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar and other Ukrainian settlements – the tough struggle between both sides could lead to the total destruction of this metropolis as well. Ukraine’s doggedness can be explained by the fact that Ukraine would be cut off from supplies to its troops in Chasiv Yar or Donetsk, or at least massively impaired, if Russian troops were to gain control of roads and railway lines in Pokrovsk.
Pokrovsk: Offensive and counter-offensive cancel each other out – a stalemate threatens again
In fact, Ukraine was mistaken in thinking that the counter-offensive across the Russian border would relieve the pressure on Donbass and force the Russian dictator to loosen his stranglehold on Pokrovsk. But: “It was not the Russian side that was weakened, but the Ukrainian one,” writes Mirror-author Christian Esch. The Russian military command may have actually redirected reserves: away from the previously prioritized offensive towards Pokrovsk towards Kursk, according to the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) a few days ago.
“This suggests that the operational pressure from the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region is affecting Russian operations in all sectors of the entire war zone,” the (ISW) wrote.
According to the American broadcaster NBC The Kremlin must also defend itself against criticism by Russian military bloggers that there is no or only a sluggish counter-offensive by its own troops against the invaders in Kursk. ISW sees this as a possi
ble change in strategy by the Russian military leadership. The reason for the slowed offensive may simply be that Russia has weakened its offensive forces slightly and Ukraine has strengthened its defense. As a result, the next stalemate in the Ukraine war would have become a reality. Both parties are also grinding each other down at Pokrovsk.
Pokrovsk: Putin’s troops fight meter by meter, from one group of trees to the next
Mirror-Author Esch sees in Pokrovsk what Pokrovsk is: the archetype of this war. No kilometer-wide tank attacks, as in the Second World War, no hours-long or days-long bombardments by two warring parties, as in the first global war. The Russians must pay for every meter of territory gained with blood: The Russians would not try to advance with large-scale attacks and the use of armored vehicles, “but with pinpricks, with constant attacks in small infantry groups,” as the Mirror writes – the Russian infantrymen would use every row of trees to hide from the drones in the steppe.
“The Russians are trying to seep in like water,” complains an artilleryman near Pokrovsk Mirror-Journalist Esch. “They try everywhere, and when they find a crack, they push further forward. If they are repelled, they just try somewhere else.” Russia is relying on what the Russian army has done in all wars: on the sheer mass of people that the military leadership is prepared to send to their deaths.
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The Kara-Dag Brigade is just one large unit that Ukraine can deploy and move freely. ForbesAuthor David Axe speaks of “a few unattached brigades” that could be used to relieve the front-line units. He does not give any details. He quotes a Russian propagandist as saying that Ukraine still has “about five brigades” in reserve. Mirror collects statements from Ukrainian officers that the front at Pokrovsk is by no means threatened by the Russians, but on the contrary: stable.
The Russians just don’t know that they are being attacked with ten times the number of their opponents, that many of the defensive positions are only set up to deceive, and that the Ukrainian defenders are close to having to count their shells and cartridges. For the Russian enemy, everything seems to be looking as if Pokrovsk is a bulwark that they will have to break their teeth on. According to many media reports, the Ukrainians seem to believe that the Russians still have the strength to bite.
And the offensive at Kursk seems to give Ukraine the feeling that they could use their offensive forces there as a long lever for peace negotiations“Why doesn’t Ukraine send these troops to Pokrovsk to secure the city’s vital supply lines?” writes Russian blogger Yevgeny Norin, as Forbes quoted as saying. “This could mean two things. They plan to use them elsewhere and they want to have a decisive influence before the front in Donbass collapses completely.” (Karsten Hinzmann)
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