10/26/2023 – 11:34
The Ibovespa opened close to stability this Thursday, 26th, with an upward bias, despite the decline in Western stock indices. Investors are divided between the advancement of the economic agenda in Brazil, after the approval of the bill that taxes high-income funds and the IPCA-15 reinforcing the Selic’s decline next week, in addition to the divergent signals from commodities (retreat from the oil and ore boom).
Furthermore, the corporate earnings season is on the radar, especially that of Vale, which will be published after the closure of B3. Petrobrás will report production data for the third quarter at night.
At the same time, investors are evaluating strong activity data from the United States.
“We still need to understand the numbers”, ponders the chief strategist of the Laatus Group, Jefferson Laatus.
Among the indicators reported, the US annualized GDP, for example, rose 4.9% in the third quarter (4.5% projection), and durable goods orders rose 4.7% in September compared to August, in comparison with a forecast increase of 1.5%.
The consumer spending price index (PCE) rose at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter, gaining strength after rising 2.5% in the second quarter, while the core PCE, which Excluding food and energy prices, it increased 2.4% between July and September, slowing down compared to the 3.7% increase in the previous quarter.
In theory, the data indicates that there will be no recession, but it suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank of the United States) will leave interest rates unchanged for longer.
“Higher GDP is bad because it makes it harder for the Fed to lower interest rates. However, the PCE core came lower, which could rule out the idea that had arisen of a rate hike by the American central bank”, observes Renato Reis, analyst at DVInvest, a partner analysis house at Blue3 Investimentos.
Despite the decline in American stock markets, yields on American bonds fall, reflecting future interest rates in Brazil. As a result, some shares linked to the economic cycle rise on B3.
“The IPCA-15 came exactly as expected, that helps. Shares of companies in debt or impacted by high interest rates benefit, as do companies that view inflation as normalizing with good eyes”, adds Reis, from DVInvest.
According to Caritsa Moreira, an analyst at VG Research, the rise in the Ibovespa still reflects some corporate data from the third quarter, but even more so the IPCA-15 of October.
“It slowed down by 0.14 percentage points compared to September data. It is an advance, and we have news about the taxation of high-income funds, which has not become as high, bringing more benefits than harm. Besides, it’s a little better outside. Despite the stronger GDP growth in the United States, inflation is not so absurd”, says Caritsa.
October’s IPCA-15 slowed to 0.21% (equal to the median forecast), compared to 0.35% in September. “We assess that qualitatively the opening of the index was benign, but in isolation it seems premature to us to endorse an intensification of the rate of interest cuts”, assesses in a note the chief economist at Ativa Investimentos, Étore Sanchez.
Yesterday, there was approval in the Chamber of the bill (PL) that provides for the taxation of high-income funds (exclusive and offshore) by 323 to 119, and one abstention. The PL should help the government in meeting the goal of zero fiscal deficit next year and represents a victory for the finance minister, Fernando Haddad. The Senate also approved the PL that extends the payroll tax exemption for 17 sectors of the economy and the text now goes to presidential sanction.
At 11:18 am, the Ibovespa rose 0.58%, to 113,457.06 points, compared to an increase of 0.74%, a maximum of 113,660.70 points, and a minimum of 112,840.03 points, when it rose 0.01% (same level opening). Petrobras led the group of eight biggest falls, dropping around 2.00%, following the decline in oil prices abroad. Vale rose 0.39%, following iron ore. Among securities linked to the economic cycle, Assai and Casas Bahia led the gains, with gains of 6.07% and 4.17%, in order.
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