Finally some verdict. The splendid Suzuka track is a perfect testing ground for the single-seaters, and, as announced, the Japanese weekend could have given some certainty on the values on the track and, above all, on the initial characteristics of the 2024 projects. The picture that emerges from the qualifying Suzuka actually clarifies some important aspects for understanding what happens on the track and it is interesting to analyze the ideas we have been able to gather.
RedBull: wider window, help for Perez and great traction
We had already noticed in the first races how the RB20 on the track did not show a monstrous level of load compared to the competition from McLaren and Ferrari, and this was recently confirmed by the head of engineers of the Austrian team, Paul Monaghan, who in fact declared that the winter work did not focus on increasing the maximum load peak, but rather on widening the spectrum of conditions in which the car produces a high level of downforce. In fact, Suzuka's qualifying confirms this. On a track where it is essential to be able to extract the car's potential Verstappen trailed Perez by less than a tenth at the finish line and the impression is that the RB20's operating window on the flying lap is particularly wide. The single-seater of Verstappen and Perez in fact lights up every compound in all conditions, even with the relative cold encountered in Japan, and it is no coincidence that with the worsening of the track in the last attempt only the Red Bull duo (together with Alonso) managed to improve the lap time, indicating a car that ultimately works well with great independence from surrounding conditions. All of this actually benefits Sergio Perez, who manages to extract decidedly more potential from the car, unlike past seasons where only Verstappen's talent was able to make it work constantly at the ideal operating point. The impression, however, is that this approach has been paid in terms of separation from the opponents, as McLaren and Ferrari have undoubtedly come closer to Horner's team: the gaps in qualifying have gone from 6 and 7 tenths respectively in the September 2023 qualifications, less than 3 and 5 tenths in April 2024, with a Ferrari that has not even expressed all the real potential of the car as we will see shortly and a Red Bull that nevertheless brought the first full-bodied update package to the track at Suzuka unlike its opponents .
Looking at the telemetry data, we see that the indices relating to the aerodynamic load no longer have a clear prevalence in favor of Red Bull as in the last season. The load index is surpassed by both Ferrari and McLaren while the standard deviation of speeds is second only to the car from Woking, but with very little difference compared to that of Maranello. However, one aspect that definitely appears to be a strong point for Newey's car is traction, as shown by the “blue bands” at the exit of each corner, when it comes to effectively discharging the power to the ground. The RB20 is therefore designed to go fast in all conditions and with both drivers, and closes with a dominant and deserved front row, but the advantage still remains less “disproportionate” compared to 2023, with a pace in the long runs than in the free practice it wasn't convincing, not even according to the drivers themselves, and that will have to be fully verified during the Grand Prix.
Ferrari in reverse: a good race pace but what a difficulty with the tire transients
Coming to the Maranello red car, we saw an SF24 that showed excellent race pace in third free practice. It appears clear, also from the data displayed during the session, that RedBull had taken on more fuel for the simulation, but the performance of Sainz and Leclerc's times was still excellent, regardless of their opponents. And perhaps for this good simulation Fred Vasseur had hoped for a weekend with the reds protagonists of a challenge decidedly closer to the Red Bulls, given the obvious disappointment that the Frenchman showed on Sky's microphones, when he admitted that more could have been done in qualification and said the phrase “it's a shame” twice, with a clearly disappointed expression on his face. It's difficult to blame him, given that the impression is that the SF24 didn't perform badly due to any particular aerodynamic, balancing or mechanical flaw. Both looking at the onboards and listening to the drivers the car gives the impression of being well balanced and stable, and in the end both Sainz and Leclerc said they actually found a good lap when they achieved their best time, a phrase that the drivers rarely pronounce when they drive a single-seater with some set-up or behavior defect, given that these problems normally generate errors. The impression is that Ferrari lacked the ability to exploit the soft tire on the qualifying lap, an aspect that appears inherent to the project and not sporadic. We had already seen something similar in Jeddah, with a decidedly competitive SF24 in the “stabilised” phase, i.e. in the phase in which the tire enters after having given its maximum peak of grip at the beginning of its life, but that the exploitation of this initial peak be particularly difficult for Sainz and even more so for Leclerc.
The thermal inertia of a stabilized tire seems to marry perfectly with the level of energy that the Cavallino single-seater discharges on the tires, but, on the contrary, in the peak phase, the performance becomes unstable and, on a highly degraded track where the soft tire tended to have a peak that didn't even last an entire lap, this problem manifested itself decisively on the result. Both Sainz and Leclerc (with greater difficulty for the latter) were unable to set the starting lap enough to have a tire ready in the demanding first sector, both at the front and at the rear, with a car that proved weak in traction on the main straight and then not very effective in the so-called “snake” curves. From there the tire found its best shape for the central sector, only to then go into difficulty again in the last sector, both for final traction and for the mechanics which at this start of the season we continue to notice are a bit in difficulty in very slow curves with high curbs, such as the triangle chicane before the finish line. The result is therefore a fourth and an eighth place, with the impression, however, that this number is false in relation to the race pace. In fact, Vasseur also declared that “Tomorrow it will be important to find yourself in clean air quickly” showing his confidence in the car's pure race pace.
McLaren confirms itself, Mercedes improves only in the feeling, Aston to be verified in the race
The excellent third position of Lando Norris and the telemetry data collected once again certify the characteristics of the McLaren project, a highly loaded and well-balanced car, with some difficulties in a straight line due to excessive resistance to progress, but still a single-seater with excellent fundamentals, which in the most demanding sections, such as the snake, also holds its own against the Red Bull, as can be seen from the gap line, with Norris leaving only 23 thousandths of a second to Verstappen in the first sector, all taken in the lead. Behind them, Mercedes is currently facing the weekend with conspicuous optimism as the set-up brought to the track does not seem to generate the long series of problems seen so far, with Hamilton who, despite seventh place, seemed to be the author of a great lap. It must be said, however, that the contrast between the “good feeling” that the Brackley drivers and technicians talk about and the seventh and ninth place on the grid, behind the McLarens, Alonso's Aston Martin and in any case not in front of the “outstanding” Ferraris gives a dimension of the current form of the Anglo-German team, concentrated more than anything else on finding the key to the problem. Finally, the excellent performance of Fernando Alonso's Aston seems to confirm the validity of the updates brought to the track by Stroll's team, especially in terms of aerodynamic efficiency, but, seeing the performance of Stroll son and knowing that one of the weak points of this year's car is the tire management, it will be interesting to evaluate the real performance of the AMR24 in the race.
In conclusion, the qualification has already provided a long series of technical topics of great interest, but only an introductory chapter remains with respect to the “book” that will be the race. However, there are many curiosities, from verifying the real RedBull pace after the difficulties in free practice, to a hypothetical Ferrari comeback, with McLaren's performance in the middle for the battle for the podium. We will then see the final verdicts that this splendid track will return in the race.
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