Real estate: demand for houses for sale increases in the first six months of the year (+16%) but supply also increases
The rise in asking prices for the properties for sale in our country shows no signs of decreasing, whether we look at large urban centres or smaller cities: in fact, in the first half of 2024, according to the analysis of Real Estate.it Insightsproptech company of the group of Real Estate.it there was an increase of almost 5%. However, the ones that increased the most in large and small centers were rents, which marked an increase of over 7%.
This fact is also reflected in the demand: at a national level the demand for homes for sale increased by almost 16% in the six months analyzed while interest in renting decreased by over 6% in the larger cities, although remaining positive (+3.3%) in the smaller municipalities, a trend that is confirmed by the trend of the last quarter.
“In the previous period characterized by strong economic uncertainty and by mortgage rates on the rise after years of substantial stability, many had decided to suspend the process of looking for a house to buy, opting for a rental solution – comments Antonio IntiniChief Business Development Officer of Real Estate.it – This contributed to a rapid growth in rents, especially in cities with high population density, which soon became unsustainable. With the first cuts in rates, many Italians recovered their purchase plans, looking for a property that meets their housing needs”.
Currently the average price in the big cities it exceeds the 3,400 euros/m2while it stops just under 1,900 euros/m2 in smaller centers. Instead, to rent a property in cities that exceed 250,000 inhabitants, you need to budget over 18 euros/m2 and just under 11 euros/m2 in those that do not reach this threshold.
Demand in the sales sector is rising
All the main indicators of the sales market show growing values in the first half of the year. The most significant increase is recorded in the available stock, which shows an increase of 21.7% in the first half of 2024, albeit at different speeds in the various areas of the country. Center, South and Islands are the areas that act as a driving force for the trend, with the North instead maintaining more contained values: in the North, both in the West and in the East, growth stands between 10 and 11%, while going down the peninsula we find +24.4% in the Center, +47.2% in the South and +48.3% in the Islands.
Despite the widespread increase in supply, demand shows no signs of slowing down: on a six-monthly basis, interest in purchasing has risen by almost 16%, with increases almost always between 10% and 20%, with the exception of the Islands, where demand has risen more modestly (+6.6%).
Together with supply and demand, between January and June the prices of properties for sale also increased at a national level, precisely by 5.2%. The most significant increase was in the North-West (+6.9%), while the Centre is the area that recorded the most modest increases, just under 3%. At the end of June, buying a house in Italy costs on average 2,238 euros/m2.
“We are in a phase of market consolidation,” Intini continues. “Demand, as we can see, remains strong, but at the same time it is distributed across a wider range of properties that is growing faster than in the previous period. For the moment, this is translating into an extension of the average sales times.”
A positive signal for those looking for a house comes from theaffordabilitywhich is up 1.5% in the semester and 1% in the last 3 months. Currently, those looking alone can afford 28.1% of the properties on offer. However, it is worth noting once again a difference between the North and the rest of the country: in both the North-West and the North-East, in fact, accessibility has fallen by 1.2 and 1.6% respectively since the beginning of the year. The Center instead records an increase of 1.7% in the six months, but the upward push is mainly represented by the South, with the South and the Islands growing by 4.6%.
The behavior is also different between large and small centers: in the latter, affordability for singles grows to a greater extent, by 2.1% in the semester, with a further increase (+2.3%) in the last 3 months, while in the most populous cities the values are closer to stability, with a +0.3% in the 6 months and a +0.6% on a quarterly basis.
“As can be seen, despite the average price of properties being on the rise, the affordability percentage of the offer is on the rise. This is because, in the semester considered, more solutions with a price lower than the accessibility threshold were put on the market compared to those with a cost that was difficult for the average user to sustain (which however contributed to the increase in the average price) – concludes Intini – A trend that is more marked in medium and small-sized cities which, despite also being experiencing a process of progressive revaluation, are more affordable areas compared to the large capitals, where prices are rising more consistently”.
The most expensive areas for sales
The Trentino Alto Adige It is still the region where it is most expensive to buy a property, with a
average expenditure requested, at the end of June, equal to almost 3,600 euros/m2 (+3.5% in the first half-year
of the year). The Calabria remains the only region below the average of 1,000 euros/m2, albeit
less than 50 euros.
Milan maintains the palm of the most expensive capital when it comes to buying: those selling a property ask on average 5,443 euros/m2, a figure that has grown by 1.8% on a six-monthly basis. Bolzano confirms its second place (4,649 euros/m2) before Florencewhich marks an increase of 2.4% in six months reaching 4,250 euros/m2. In the head to head between Bologna And Romethe capital of Emilia-Romagna remains slightly ahead, 3,499 euros/m2 against 3,429 euros/m2.
Interest in renting drops slightly
Looking at the Italian context as a whole, in the first six months of the year the rental request is slightly decreasing (-1%), given that it is close to stability (-0.4%) in the quarter just ended. However, the country presents itself at two speeds: in the North-West and, above all, in the North-East, demand contracts in the semester, recording respectively -1.2% and -4.6%, while it increases significantly in the same period in the Center (+2.6), in the South (+3.1%) and in the Islands, the area where the most significant growth is recorded, +5.7%, with a further push in the last quarter (+7.8%).
As regards the offer of properties for renton a half-yearly basis the stock is decreasing throughout Italy (-10.4%), although with a slowdown in the decline in the last quarter (-1.4%). Once again, however, the trend is different depending on the area of the country considered: if in six months the availability decreases in the Center (-15%), in the North-West (-12.6%) and in the North-East (-7.3%), increases are evident in the South (+3.5% in the South and +2% in the Islands).
In terms of prices, rents continue to rise throughout Italy, recording a +8.5% in the semester, stopping just under 14 euros/m2. The Center and the South show the most significant increases, in both cases around 10%, while the North-East is the area that grows the least (+3.7%). Finally, the North-West and Islands rise with values close to 9%.
The most expensive areas for rent
There Valle d’Aosta remains the most expensive region in which to rent, with rents having broken through the ceiling of 21 euros/m2 following the double-digit increase – +12% – in the first six months of 2024. The cheapest region is instead theUmbriajust above 7 euros/m2 and down 1.4% in the semester.
Among the capitals, Milan remains in first place with 23.3 euros/m2 (+1.7% in six months), but Florence is gradually approaching, also considering the most significant increase – +5% – on a half-yearly basis. Currently renting a property in the city of David is equivalent to an average expense of 22.5 euros per square meter. Bologna is in third place (17.3 euros/m2), ahead of Rome (16.9 euros/m2).
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