On the border with Santa Catarina, rainfall can be 60% higher; the least prepared municipalities are concentrated in the Northeast
The incidence of rainfall in the central region of Rio Grande do Sul could grow between 20% and 40% by 2040. Projections from the Inpe (National Institute for Space Research) released in November 2023 show that the border with Santa Catarina could increase by more than 60%.
The information was collected and synthesized in the National Civil Protection and Defense Plan, prepared by the federal government. The study brings together information for disaster risk management in Brazil. Here’s the complete (PDF- 5 MB).
According to Inpe’s projection, extreme rainfall with results such as flooding, floods, floods and cyclones tends to increase in the South, with emphasis on the eastern portion of Santa Catarina and the north of Rio Grande do Sul, where rainfall may increase by more than 60%.
The same can be seen on the north coast of Bahia and in Sergipe. In the central region of Rio Grande do Sul and in much of Santa Catarina, the increase ranges between 20% and 40%.
The strategy also raises the capacity of cities to respond to and protect themselves from extreme climate disasters. The ICM (Municipal Capacity Index) in 2023 shows that the regions with the highest number of municipalities with capacity are in the South and Southeast, with 20% and 17%, respectively.
The Northeast region concentrates more cities with no or initial capacity to respond to extreme events. There are 1,340 municipalities with reduced infrastructure and resources, according to the federal government.
The Plan also details the chances of a municipality being hit by a disaster. The IQR (Qualitative Risk Index) indicates that incidences of floods, for example, are concentrated in the Central-West and Northeast. Cyclones and windstorms are in the South.
Extreme droughts range from the Southeast region to the north of Amapá, along the border with the North and Northeast – historically the most affected by drought and drought.
“A range that goes from the South to the South of the Central-West region with municipalities with high IRQ droughts and droughts draws attention. In the North region, it is possible to observe a concentration of municipalities in the state of Amazonas under the same conditions,” the study states.
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