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According to experts, Putin has a clear strategy in the Ukraine war. He should tackle three goals. Russia seems to be playing for time until winter.
Moscow – According to security policy experts, the strategy of Wladimir Putin clear for the coming summer: the existing weaknesses of the Ukraine to make progress in what he describes as a “special military operation”.
The winter and the lack of an aid package that has so far been implemented in the USHouse of Representatives stuck, weakened Ukraine in the end. According to experts, Russian President Putin wants to play for time over the summer. If the strategy works, it could Russia win territory again next winter – and perhaps more easily.
Putin has three goals in mind in the Ukraine war
“He has three goals in mind: to demonstrate greatness to his own population, to break the Ukrainian will to resist and to force the Western supporters to give up,” explained the professor of contemporary history and culture of Eastern Europe at the University of Bremen, Susanne Schattenberg, in a guest article by three political experts at Daily Mirror.
In the last few months, more targeted warfare has become clear on the Russian side, for example through large hits on important infrastructure. According to the assessments of the three experts, this could have been just the beginning.
“Russia has also launched a new campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This is a forward-looking strategy for next winter,” said Marek Kohv, head of the Security and Resilience program at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS). As part of this strategy, Putin has already expanded the production of Iskander and Kinzhal missile systems. On the Ukrainian side, the air defense did not stop some strikes against critical infrastructure and the workers sometimes have to continue working in risky conditions and wait a long time for spare parts.
Breaking Ukraine's resistance: Putin's main focus in the war?
Power outages and ongoing attacks are taking their toll on the Ukrainian population. “The Russian leadership undoubtedly wants to conquer the parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that have not yet been occupied. The aim of the air strikes on Kharkiv, for example, is to break the morale of the population and trigger a wave of refugees from the city,” explained Mangott. After the fronts remained mostly the same for much of the winter, quick advances by the Russian military could also break the courage on the Ukrainian side.
At the same time, a weak point has also been discovered in the sometimes missing or delayed deliveries from the West: “Russia's immediate military goal is the severe wear and tear of Ukrainian personnel and material; That is currently more important than territorial gains.” Mangott wrote that they wanted to increase a Ukrainian defense deficit. In the long term, it is not unlikely that a blockade like the one in… US Congress happened again. This would be a good opportunity for Russia to make quick territorial gains.
Pressure and disinformation among Western supporters – Russia wants to put pressure on people
“Russia has recognized the hesitancy of some Western capitals to help Ukraine. The Russian tactic now is to exploit the situation and maintain maximum pressure on the Ukrainian armed forces,” said ICDS representative Kohv. Such a strategy could weaken not only Ukraine, but also support from Western countries – by raising doubts about the effectiveness of further support.
Such a consequence could also be the second strategy aimed at the West: “Disinformation in particular is intended to influence the formation of opinions in the West about further military and financial aid,” explained Gerhard Mangott, professor of political science with a focus on international relations and Russia at the University of Innsbruck . He assumes that Russian disinformation campaigns will extend to… European election would strengthen even further.
Putin wants greatness and legitimacy for Russia
“Russia does not currently have a personnel problem due to the large number of volunteers, but in certain areas an equipment problem“, says Mangott. Instead of another major wave of mobilization, the Kremlin has launched in recent months good pay for army volunteers and the promise of freedom to prisoners fighting in the Ukraine War. Women, including female prisoners, apparently increasingly accepted the offer. On the other hand, a large number of media reports also focused on Russian ammunition shortages and recourse to Soviet stocks.
Putin wants to be back in front of Kiev soon in the Ukraine war
“His plan will be to not only occupy these cities by the end of the year, but also before Kyiv to stand,” predicted Eastern Europe expert Schattenberg. Given that the “special military operation” should actually be over quickly, territorial gains could also provide legitimacy in Russia. According to Schattenberg's assessment, Putin's goal is to bring Kharkiv and Kherson under Russia's military control.
In Russia, according to experts, the election strengthened the legitimacy of the Ukraine war: “Putin is using them 87 percent of the votes, which he supposedly won in the March 'elections' as a mandate for the 'war against the West,'” Schattenberg explained. According to Schattenberg, the declaration of the Moscow clergyman Cyril I on a “holy war” also helps with legitimacy. (lismah)
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