Military analyst Sean Bell sees Putin’s future as increasingly “unsustainable”. He outlines a scenario for negotiations on an end to the Ukraine war.
Moscow – An end to the Ukraine war? Currently not foreseeable. Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin is under enormous pressure. The Russian economy is weakening. The ruble falls and so does that Wagner Uprising of Mercenaries by Yevgeny Prigozhin still floating around in the back of my mind. And after initial difficulties, Ukraine’s offensive is gaining in power.
All this has left its mark on Russia. And the problems keep piling up. Here’s how Putin’s armed forces are running out of rocket launchers in the war in Ukraine. His “super tanks” also catch fire on the battlefield. The current situation in the Ukraine war appears to be critical. So critical that the Ukraine speculates about a new wave of mobilization in Russia. British military expert Sean Bell believes the noose is tightening around Putin.
No future in the Ukraine war: “Putin has probably already lost this war”
Does Russia’s ruler still have a future because of the Ukraine war? “Putin has probably already lost this war,” the ex-military explained Sky News. At least there were growing signs that the Russian president’s power base was faltering, and cracks in the foundations of his rule were coming to light. For this reason alone, according to Bell, it is more important than ever to keep up international pressure on Putin’s regime and to continue support for Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invaders.
From a Western perspective, with Ukraine’s offensive to recapture the occupied territories slow to gain momentum, the lack of progress on the battlefield in Ukraine to date may be worrying. However, according to the expert, Ukraine’s strategic victory does not necessarily have to be based on military successes.
Ceasefire in Ukraine war: Putin’s “future looks increasingly untenable”
Putin’s “future looks increasingly untenable,” is Bell’s diagnosis. At the beginning of the Ukraine war, Putin assumed that time was on his side. According to the expert, however, the longer the war lasted, the more time it would play in Ukraine. After all, Russia is demonstrably losing ground, while Kiev is sending fresh troops to the front in the southern counter-offensive in the Ukraine war.
Former US General Ben Hodges emphasized back in February in an interview with Peter Salmaev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, and Ukrainian military blogger Taras Berezovets that “Crimea is the key” to ending the Ukraine war. According to his assessment, further advances on the peninsula occupied by Russia could get Putin into trouble. According to Bell, this position of weakness would be the basis for the Russian President to proactively agree to a ceasefire.
However, if the international community were to force him to the negotiating table with Ukraine, the Kremlin ruler could seize the opportunity to bring about an end to the Ukraine war, at least in part, on his terms and possibly retain Crimea and some areas of the Donbass as spoils of war.
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine: Putin surprises with “basis” for the end of the Ukraine war
This would be at least a partial success for the “military special operation” that Putin announced to the population Russia could sell. But due to the high losses in the Ukraine war, the damaged economy and the insecure situation in the country, according to Bell, Putin’s days as Russian president could be numbered.
Nevertheless, Russia’s President caused a surprise at the end of the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg. Speaking to representatives of the press, Putin described a “basis” for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev to end the Ukraine war.
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