Moscow is 11,171 kilometers from Brasilia. The geographical distance creates the illusion that Vladimir Putin’s plans are restricted to expansionism on the borders of his country. Some say that the conflict, in addition to being geographically distant, is also politically. Neither Brazil nor Latin America has anything to gain by worrying or positioning itself in relation to the plans of Putin, who this week invaded Ukraine. I wish the world were compartmentalized like this.
Moscow is closer than it looks. An undeniable fact is that the shock waves of the invasion of Ukraine that will hit Brazil will have an impact on the price of fuel, food and the possible breach of the promise to send more fertilizers to Brazil – which is why, contrary to reason, Jair Bolsonaro went to the Russia at the worst possible time to meet Putin in retribution for the Russian promise to expand the supply of the input.
It is incomprehensible the reluctance to assume or at least make an effort to understand that Moscow is not far away and that the movement of pieces on the geopolitical board do not follow the rules of borders and are not measured by means of odometers or Hobbs meters. Putin has been playing in Latin America and Brazil for a long time. Every time he advances a few houses on his land, there are reflections on his movements in our region.
The most shining example is its role of Russia in Venezuela. The regime of Nicolás Maduro can only survive through the combination of the illicit economy – which nourishes the mafias and fills the pockets of politicians and military personnel – and the direct and decisive action of extra-regional powers that provide diplomatic support, offering channels for evasion of sanctions. and provide the necessary coverage for State operations, whether formal or not. In addition to China, Iran and Turkey, Russia is one of the partners that allow the Venezuelan regime to survive.
As Putin puts his troops to march on Ukraine, his military operates spy radars in Venezuela, close to the Colombian border. Second the Ministry of Defense of Colombia, there are at least five devices intercepting communications.
Neither Chávez nor Maduro ever made a point of hiding the Russian military presence in their country. Whenever he can, the current dictator makes a speech or posts on Twitter that Russian troops have arrived in his country. In the last decade, Venezuela has been visited three times by Tupolev bombers, capable of carrying nuclear weapons. It is not known if they were armed. If so, it would have been the return of this type of weapon on the continent since the missile crisis in 1962, when the then USSR installed a nuclear arsenal in Cuba.
In 2019, when Maduro was at his most critical moment, Putin landed in Caracas no less than 100 uniformed soldiers who paraded for the regime’s cameras. They were sent out to “lend a hand”. Provide technical assistance in maintaining the Russian arsenal – which is the basis of Venezuela’s defense material – and to guide the Bolivarian Armed Forces. And from the reports of people who know a lot about what happens in the bowels of the regime, this “help” continues to this day.
Venezuela has the largest Russian arsenal in Latin America. The history of the acquisition of Russian weapons by the Chavista regime has extra relevance to understanding Venezuela’s failure. In 2006, after being barred from buying American weapons due to a ban imposed by the US Congress, Hugo Chávez did not bat an eyelash. He ran into Putin’s arms. THE list of weapons and equipment is long. The Venezuelans bought 100,000 assault rifles, 38 Mi-17 multipurpose helicopters, three M1-26 transport helicopters, ten Mi-35 combat helicopters and 24 Sukhoi Su-30MK2 fighter jets.
Despite the fact that at that moment Venezuela was swimming in oil revenues, Chávez made the purchases, totaling US$ 6 billion, on installment plans. When Venezuela’s economy collapsed, debt remained. Brazil knows this story well, because of the default they made on the BNDES. In the case of Russian weapons, it was quite different. Dependent on Putin to survive as a regime, the Chavistas handed over an important part of their production and oil reserves to Russia as part of the payment.
In addition to earning a handsome fortune from the operation, the Russians use the oil flow to help Maduro evade the sanctions imposed on him and push Venezuelan oil into international transactions. There are reports that a commission is charged that can exceed 20% of the value of the operations.
Not long ago, when the invasion of Ukraine was still a possibility and the West thought the rhetoric would contain the Russians, Putin sent a message to the United States. He said that if NATO did not stop advancing its influence with countries bordering Russia, it could send forces to Venezuela and Cuba. The White House treated the case as bravado. But Putin appears to be no braggart.
In addition to being a partner in Maduro’s Venezuela, the Russian president has set up “bases” in Nicaragua, where he maintains troops that “help” Daniel Ortega’s butchers with “combat drug trafficking” training. Through his nuclear state-owned Rosatom, Putin seeks to expand his influence in Bolivia, Argentina, Paraguay and more recently in the United States. Brazil.
At the end of last year, the Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina, went to Russia to negotiate an increase in the shipment of fertilizers to Brazil. President Bolsonaro’s trip to Moscow was a kind of gesture of Brazilian courtesy to the partner who reached out at a critical moment. But Putin does not help us out of love. Depending on the evolution of the crisis, it is not even possible to expect the fulfillment of promises.
A lot of people don’t understand or don’t want to understand. I suspect that Bolsonaro didn’t condemn Russia because he can’t, or maybe he doesn’t think it’s convenient. Brazil depends on Putin.
As you can see, Russia is not that far away.
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