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Erdogan and the AKP suffered heavy losses in the Turkish elections. Experts paint a scenario of how the relationship between Russia and Turkey could now change.
Istanbul – The elections in Turkey were only at the local level, but they gave an important impression of the mood for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP party. While the opposition CHP party celebrated its biggest electoral success in decades, the AKP achieved its worst results in history. The defeat is a hard blow for Erdogan, who has been Turkey's president since 2014. But how does the election result affect Turkey's relations with other countries? When it comes to Russia and Putin, experts have a clear opinion.
Russia's Putin and Turkey's Erdogan: Good relationship and intact trade – despite the Ukraine war
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan maintain a good relationship. When Putin was re-elected president in Russia a few weeks ago, Erdogan congratulated him on the phone and expressed his conviction that “the positive development of the relationship between Turkey and Russia will continue.” In contrast to most other NATO states Turkey continues to maintain a good relationship with Russia and has often offered itself as a mediator in the Ukraine war. Trade relations between the two countries also remain intact.
The recent local elections in Turkey could now change this special relationship, as Marc Pierini and Francesco Siccardi write. The two experts analyzed the situation before the election Carnegie Europe, a Washington-based think tank. You wrote, a victory for Erdogan's AKP party would consolidate his power and “bring him closer to President Putin’s authoritarian style of government.” This could widen the gap between Turkey and the other NATO states.
“A dampening effect on Erdogan’s reputation”: Is Turkey now moving closer to the EU instead of Russia?
While in the scenario of an AKP victory the relationship with Russia could have been justified to the Turkish public, the reality, according to the experts, now means: “Conversely, an opposition victory would have a dampening effect on the reputation of President Erdogan domestically.” If Erdogan had less power at home, this would also have an impact on Turkey’s international behavior. For the EU, for example, the local elections are an impetus to work more closely with Turkey. The focus should be on values such as fundamental rights and democracy, said a spokesman for the European Foreign Office in Brussels. It remains to be seen whether Putin will now also offer an offer of closer cooperation.
It remains to be seen whether Erdogan's loss of power will last. Governing large cities can be an opportunity for the opposition to raise its own profile – especially in a country where the media is largely state-controlled. Experience has shown that the government in Ankara often makes it difficult for opposition-governed cities, such as Istanbul, to initiate significant changes or implement large projects. (with material from dpa and AFP)
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