05/13/2024 – 9:11
The Focus Market Report revised the fiscal deficit projection for 2024. For the primary deficit in relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, the median went from 0.67% to 0.64%, from 0.70% ago one month.
The bimonthly expenditure and revenue report released in March changed the primary result to a deficit of R$9.3 billion (0.1% of GDP). President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has already warned that the government “will hardly reach target zero”, especially because the head of the Executive “does not want to make cuts in investments and works”.
Focus’s estimate for the nominal deficit in 2024 remained at 6.80% of GDP, the same level as a month ago. The primary result reflects the balance between government revenues and expenses, before paying interest on public debt. The nominal result reflects the balance after spending on interest and other financial expenses.
The estimate for the indicator that measures the relationship between public sector net debt and GDP in 2024 went from 63.85% to 63.90% from 63.77% a month ago.
For 2025, the primary deficit expected by the market went from 0.68% to 0.60% of GDP, compared to 0.60% a month ago. The new fiscal framework approved last year provided for a primary surplus target of 0.5% of GDP next year, but the government changed the target to 0% of GDP in the budget guidelines bill (PLDO) for next year .
The nominal deficit projected for 2025 went from 6.25% to 6.27% of GDP, compared to 6.25% a month ago. The estimate for net debt next year remained at 66.50% of GDP, compared to 66.27% four weeks earlier.
#Primary #deficit #relation #GDP #highlights #Focus