01/19/2024 – 8:51
With no news in relation to previous documents, the Central Bank released this Friday, the 19th, the Pre-Copom Questionnaire (QPC) sent to market analysts before the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), on the 30th and 31st. of January. Last month, the collegiate reduced the Selic by 0.50 percentage points for the fourth time in a row, to 11.75%, and signaled cuts of the same magnitude in subsequent meetings.
The questionnaire begins with the traditional question about what analysts expect from the Copom's decisions in the next three meetings (January, March and May), including what they think the BC will include in the statement and in the minutes also regarding the next steps of monetary policy.
The QPC maintains questions about the scenario for inflation – disaggregated by free and managed components – exchange rate, Selic, barrel of oil and a comprehensive questionnaire on GDP in 2024 and 2025. Specific questions remain about the potential impact of El Niño on both the years. In the short term, it asks for projections for the IPCA, services and core averages in January, February, March and April.
For the external scenario, there are requests for projections on GDP and inflation in the United States, China and the Euro Area this year and next. The BC repeats the specific question about economists' projections for short-term and 10-year American interest rates – in 2024, 2025 and in the long term.
The QPC also repeats questions about the government's fiscal result this and next year, the long-term scenario for public debt until 2032 and an estimate for the revenue potential with the measures sent to Congress. As in the December document, the questionnaire again asks for a forecast on the impact of the payment of court orders.
The monetary authority also resumes questions about the labor market, both regarding the unemployment rate, employee income and the Caged balance accumulated in 2024 and 2025.
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