Despite polls indicating a largely decided electorate, analysts heard by the Estadão indicate factors on the eve of the elections that could change the scenario on October 2. One of them is abstention, facilitated this year by the possibility of justification by application. There is also the useful vote of those who defend ending the dispute in the first round, the so-called “embarrassed vote” – not revealed in the polls – and the percentage of undecided ones.
Low in stimulated surveys (when the names of candidates are informed), the rate of undecided varies from 11% to 28% in spontaneous surveys, those in which the names of the candidates are not presented.
According to political scientist and professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) Fernando Abrucio, the rate of undecided people may be higher than what appears in the polls. “Some want to wait until the end to get more information and make a decision, many can go to Simone Tebet or Ciro Gomes, others want to decide whether to vote for Lula, as a useful vote,” he said. “Voting is a combination of social and economic factors, as well as values. Bolsonaro has stopped because the economy is improving, but social welfare is not.”
Abstention also influences. It grew from 16% in 2006 to 20.3% in 2018. Almost 30 million people failed to vote in the last election. For analysts, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) may be the most affected with an eventual increase in absentees, but it would also affect the vote of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is seeking reelection.
According to Abrucio, the D and E classes tend to vote less (most vote for Lula), as do the elderly (majority vote for Bolsonaro). Data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) show that, in 2018, the group with the highest abstention rate was that of illiterates over 60 years old (over 50%). On the other hand, this year there was a record number of young people under the age of 18 who took voter registration – 2 million.
Last hour
Political scientist and chairman of the board of the Institute for Social, Political and Economic Research (Ipespe), Antonio Lavareda, pointed out what he calls the “erratic vote”, decided in recent days, as another factor of surprise. “There is that voter who sees the poll the day before and votes for who is leading. And the one who decides to vote for the underdog, who has no chance of winning.”
In 2018, 10% of the votes that the polls indicated would go to other candidates migrated to Fernando Haddad (PT) or Bolsonaro on the last day of the presidential race.
For the director of Quaest, Felipe Nunes, the trajectory of change in voters’ voting intentions is evident. “People are able to change their voting intentions depending on the dynamics of the electoral system. It happened in 2018. My assessment is that this tends to happen in 2022. The effect that a useful vote can have is not negligible.” The most recent Datafolha survey showed that 11% admit to changing their vote so that the presidential election ends in the first round. At Ipespe, 68% also said they prefer it to end on the 2nd.
Interspersed with the undecided and erratic are those who can make an “embarrassed vote” next Sunday. And, according to analysts, among them, the most present would be the evangelicals. “The evangelical shameful vote is a reality. An environment was created in which those who say they are going to vote for Lula suffer social reprisal,” said political scientist and director of the Evangelical Observatory, Vinicius do Valle.
Bolsonaro’s campaign bets that there is also a portion of the shamed vote for him. This would happen in the poorest segments. And the same would happen in the opposite direction in the higher income brackets, pro-Lula.
Economy
The most frequent topic of concern for voters is the economy, the latest rounds of polls show. For the president of Instituto Locomotiva, Renato Meirelles, the group of voters who receive from two to five minimum wages is one of the most affected by the fluctuation in the performance of the economy. Meirelles points out that historically these voters have the potential to define the election, as it is a disputed segment.
That’s what happens in this lawsuit. While Lula advances among the poorest and Bolsonaro among the richest, class C is disputed vote by vote. At Ipec, the president and former president have already taken the lead more than once in the historical series, which could result in surprises on the 2nd.
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