Population development|The research company MDI predicts that in no less than 50 municipalities the population will decrease by more than a fifth by 2040. Without immigration, the situation would be even worse.
Finland the population may grow to almost six million by 2040. This would require heavy immigration.
The forecast comes from the MDI research company. It specializes especially in mutual changes between regions.
Finland had more than 5.6 million inhabitants at the end of last year. If Finland were to succeed in attracting a lot of immigrants, the country’s population could rise to around 5.9 million, according to MDI’s forecast.
However, there are many changing factors in the estimate. And one of them is specifically related to immigration.
In recent years, a large number of Ukrainians who arrived under temporary protection have moved to Finland. In addition, record numbers of people have come from the countries of the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia.
The forecast was prepared by an MDI expert Rasmus Aro assesses in the press release that although Finland has proven itself to be an internationally attractive destination, both national and global events can significantly decrease the level of immigration.
Finland’s population may even decrease from its current level if immigration remains low. This would, for example, be harmful in terms of the economy’s sustainability gap.
of MDI in the population forecast, possible developments are examined through four scenarios.
The starting point in all of them is that the birth rate remains low.
In the scenario of high immigration, in which it is assumed that the high level of recent years will still rise, Finland’s population will approach six million inhabitants by 2040.
In scenarios with less immigration, population growth ends or even turns clearly negative.
According to Aro, the population is growing especially in university towns and in the regions of Helsinki, where growth is driven by immigration.
“Helsinki, Vantaa and Espoo are growing the most in terms of volume,” Aro says on the phone.
Relatively i.e., measured in percentage terms, the metropolitan area’s neighborhoods such as Kerava, Tuusula and Järvenpää stand out the most from the statistics.
“Their growth is based on the fact that there are immigrants from big cities,” says Aro.
In the same way, Kaarina is estimated to grow. Nokia and Lempäälä swell in the ratings thanks to their proximity to Tampere.
Although, according to the forecast, Helsinki’s population growth is the highest in terms of population growth, it is relatively behind Turku and Tampere, the forecast estimates.
“Part of Helsinki’s growth is channeled to Espoo and Vantaa. Of course, it depends on how the construction of the urban area is regulated,” explains Aro.
Outside the large urban areas, the population base is growing in the Lapland region, for example in Kittilä and the Inari region.
“And in Ostrobothnia, for example, Pietarsaari and Luoto are developing significantly.”
For the most part the country’s MDI also shows the shrinking of the population.
According to the forecast, the population will decrease by 2040 in the majority of the country, regardless of whether there will be a lot or a little immigration to Finland. For example, according to the forecast of high immigration, the population will decrease in 80 percent of the municipalities.
A particularly drastic population decrease is ahead in municipalities where there are already more deaths than births.
According to MDI’s calculations, the population in no less than 50 municipalities will decrease by more than a fifth by 2040.
“In the worst cases, the population drops by more than 25-30 percent.”
Many of these municipalities are former local centers of Eastern or Central Finland, like Lieksa and Nurme, which have been severely affected by the change in the economic structure.
Quantitatively, the largest population reductions are seen in medium-sized and slightly smaller industrial towns.
“In cities like Kotka, Kouvola and Kajaani.”
Relatively the largest reductions can be expected in more remote provinces.
“A lot of people move away from these after their education and never come back.”
Immigration regardless of the level, the number of children decreases considerably, and therefore does not save the school age groups from collapse. Immigration replaces the decline in the birth rate mainly in the capital region.
In all pictures of the future, the number of people over 75 will increase significantly, says Aro.
The population over 84 will almost double.
According to the forecast, immigration will not significantly change the population development in about 75 percent of the municipalities. The reason is that immigration is heavily concentrated in large cities and growth centers. In addition, immigrants actively move within the country, strengthening the uneven distribution.
Statistics Finland’s new population forecast will be published in October.
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