Search PowerDate carried out from 11 to 13 September 2022 shows that 1 in 3 voters think that the vote count in Brazil is not safe. The rate, now at 31%, has dropped 5 percentage points since late May, the penultimate time the PowerDate asked this question to the interviewees.
The group of those who say they trust the electoral system is now 56%. It had minimal variation since January. Since then, the migration of the electorate has taken place between the group of those who do not think counting is safe and the group that does not know how to respond.
why does it matter
Because there seems to be a high, firm floor of voters who trust the system. This does not mean that the Bolsonaro’s quarrel with the voting system and the negotiations between the TSE and the Armed Forces have no further developments in the coming days. But the tendency is that this will hardly have a great effect on voting intentions.
Among the voters of the 4 best-placed candidates in the polls, those of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) are the only ones who are more critical of the system (52%) than people who trust it (32%). The majority of voters in Squid (71%), Cyrus (80%) and Tebet (69%) think counting is safe.
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. Data were collected from September 11 to 13, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,500 interviews in 298 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-02955/2022.
To reach 3,500 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerDate makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees who faithfully represent the entire population are found. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.
STRATIFICATION
Read below how voters in each demographic (sex, age, region, education and family income) assess the security of vote counting in Brazil.
DIFFERENCES IN SURVEYS
This presidential election is proving challenging for companies doing research. There are many results indicating divergent signals. It was difficult to know what the real trend is at this moment.
It is important to say that all polls are right, each within the methodology chosen. Each system can have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the situation they want to determine.
In 2018, for example, there was much “embarrassed vote” in Jair Bolsonaro. Some face-to-face surveys had difficulty capturing this type of preference. Telephone polls, on the other hand, gave more comfort to part of the voters who opted for the then presidential candidate for the PSL (today, Bolsonaro is in the PL).
It is still unclear what impact each methodology has on data collection. But it is already known that in-person polls tend to have a result pointing to a looser leadership of Lula. And telephone surveys (especially automated and neutral ones, with a recording asking the questions, like the PowerDate) tend to show a tighter contest.
In the United States, face-to-face polling has not been used for decades to measure voting intentions at the national level. The extreme polarized environment hinders data collection when the interviewer and the interviewee are face to face.
In short, it is important to note that it is not a question of there being an error in one or another research. They are different methodologies. At the end of this campaign it will be possible to know which system was most appropriate to point out trends in the current Brazilian political moment.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
The research information began to be compiled by journalist Fernando Rodrigues, Editor-in-Chief of the Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
METHODOLOGY
The search PowerDate was carried out from September 4 to 6, 2022. 3,500 people aged 16 years or older were interviewed in 298 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. A parametric weighting was applied to compensate for disproportionalities in the variables of sex, age, education level, region and income. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The interviews were carried out by telephone (for landlines and cell phones), using the URA (Audible Response Unit) system, in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds through the keyboard of the device. The confidence interval of the study is 95%.
For ease of reading, the search results have been rounded. Because of this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results is different from 100. Differences between the total frequencies and the percentages in tables of crossover of variables may appear due to non-response occurrences. This study was carried out with the resources of the PowerDatea research company that is part of the media group Power360 Journalism. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. The research is registered with the TSE under the number BR-02955//2022.
#PoderData #voters #trust #vote #count