Plebiscite in Chile: this Sunday is the final test to achieve a new Constitution

Deciding between maintaining the constitution inherited from the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990) or opting for one drafted by a conservative coalition is the dilemma faced this Sunday by Chileans called to vote in a second plebiscite that seeks to close the demands that arose after the social outbreak of 2019.

(You can read: The changes brought by the new Constitution proposal in Chile).

This is the second attempt to draft a new constitution, a process that began after the resounding rejection in September 2022 of a project written by a leftist convention that proposed a radical transformation of the institutions and was a pioneer in enshrining free abortion and protection enviroment.

But, in just over two years of writing and subsequently rejecting one of the most avant-garde constitutional proposals in the world in terms of feminism and environmentalism, The Chileans handed over the baton of the second constituent process to the right, whose main novelty is the creation of the social and democratic State of law..

(Also: 'Those who are irregular in Chile, we are going to kick them out,' says President Boric).

The text that will be voted on this Sunday also includes some articles that have generated great controversy, such as the consecration of the “right to life of the unborn” – a rule that many fear will collide with the law that allows abortion on three grounds – or the immediate expulsion of migrants who enter irregularly.

The truth is that after four years of intense debates and a failed attempt, the majority of Chileans no longer see the constituent process as a priority, at a time when issues such as insecurity and the migration crisis monopolize the agenda.

(Also read: Government of Chile confirms that it will carry out expulsion flights for irregular immigrants).

Faithful to its pendulum political tradition, Chile went from approving in 2019 – with 78 percent – the option of changing the Constitution to massively rejecting the text drafted by the convention controlled by the left in 2022which produced enormous political and economic costs for the southern country.

“The main political cost has to do with the wear and tear on citizens. This issue has been open in Chile even since 1980, when the current Constitution was installed, which faced reforms in 1989. It also happened in 2005 and, now, when it was thought that the process that started in 2019 to change it was going to be the final one, we have a panorama of total uncertainty,” Marco Moreno, an academic at the School of Government of the Central University in Chile, tells EL TIEMPO.

(Keep reading: Lula, Boric and presidents of the region react to Milei's victory in Argentina).

Meanwhile, while Gabriel Boric's Executive seeks to prevent his management from being linked to the results of the vote and together with the rest of the left describes the proposal as “dogmatic” ensuring that it represents “setbacks” in social rights, The right defends that the document is better than the current Magna Carta because it “collects” current concerns such as security or migration, and ensures that its approval will put an end to the four years of institutional uncertainty that caused the social outbreak of 2019.

The contradiction is such that the most radical right, which never opted to change the current fundamental text, together with the traditional right, defend in this Sunday's plebiscite replacing the current wording; while those who had always insisted on a new proposal are now betting on maintaining it.

(Also read: President Boric confirms breakup with his partner Irina Karamanos: why is there controversy?).

And the decision made by the 15 million Chileans who are called to the polls will have a direct impact on the political arena, especially for the two years that remain before the Boric Government.

A challenge for Boric

Since last December 2, Chile officially entered the polling ban period and although experts say that the scenario is more open than it seems, All the surveys published at the beginning of the month predicted that citizens will reject the constitutional proposal, although the population that approves has been increasing in recent weeks..

(In context: Chile: Boric receives a proposal for a Constitution that will be submitted to a plebiscite in December).

The unknown is how much it will affect the option defended by the left, that of rejecting the proposal, a case of corruption that affects one of the largest parties in the ruling coalition (Democratic Revolution) and that in recent days has gained momentum with the arrest of two people who have already been formalized by the Chilean Justice.

“Citizens have to be very clear that this December 17 they evaluate whether they are for or against a proposed constitutional text, not of a particular law, not of a particular political sector, not of a particular person, but rather a constitutional text,” said the Chilean government spokesperson, Camila Vallejo, with a view to preventing Boric's management of the Executive from being linked to the results of this Sunday.

For Máximo Pavez, who was a member of the Commission of Experts of the new constitution and supports the “For” option, The approval of this plebiscite could begin a new stage in Chile with renewed institutions, although with a long period of implementation of the new regulations.

(Keep reading: Drafters of the Magna Carta proposal in Chile: we seek a period of stability).

“The approval of the new Constitution would allow us to clarify the rules that will govern us with legal certainty in all dimensions. And, if the option against wins, Chile will continue with a political and institutional system that is in itself a problem in providing answers because there is a certain exhaustion of the institutional system at a general level,” he assures.

“The electorate has shown signs of moderation, of wanting a Constitution that guarantees greater social rights and greater inclusion, especially of women, but they are afraid of a radical change,” explained Claudia Heiss, from the University of Chile.

What is clear is that Whichever of the two options wins will represent an enormous challenge for the government of Gabriel Boricsince, if the “For” wins, the Government will suffer a new defeat for the two remaining years of its administration because it will have to get involved in the implementation of the new constitutional text, as well as in the creation of new institutions, but If “Against” wins, it would not have a much more encouraging outlook.

(You can read: 'We talked about energy transition and migration,' says Boric after meeting with Petro).

“Depending on whether it wins by a large majority, the government could have pressure from sectors close to the ruling party to carry out a new constituent process, despite the fact that it has clearly said that during this mandate it will not do so,” estimates Moreno.

Fiscal pact and security

In recent months, the Chilean Government has promoted more than 30 security bills, of which 20 have become laws in Congress. However, faces other challenges such as carrying out a pension reform, something that has not been achieved in the last three governments, and that could be impacted by the results of this Sunday's plebiscite.

“There is a debate that is related to the fact that the Government wants a mixed pension system, it wants distribution, a solidarity component and individual capitalization, and the opposition has resistance to solidarity and in many cases they believe that the increase in pensions should be financed with general taxes for an ideological issue,” Poirot Escovedo, journalist for the 24 Horas channel and expert on Congress, told EL TIEMPO.

(We recommend: How was the proposal for a new Constitution that Chileans will vote on in December?).

Other issues that Boric will have to face after this Sunday's plebiscite are the health pension reform and the forgiveness of student loans, which was one of the flags when he came to power.

(Also read: The constitutional process in Chile, stalled after four years of the social outbreak).

In addition to the fiscal pact, since despite the fact that the poverty rate had a historic decline and went from 10.7 percent in 2020 to 6.5 percent in 2022, the rejection of the tax reform to raise the necessary funds and financing his government program put these resources in check, which is why legislative experts agree that in the event that, as the polls indicate, the “Against” option wins, the Executive will bet on specific reforms and the constitutional issue will come up. Finally, from a heated political debate in Chile.

ANDREA AGUILAR CÓRDOBA
FOR THE TIME
SANTIAGO, CHILE