By Marta Nogueira and Roberto Samora
RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) – Petrobras expects to invest US$78 billion between 2023 and 2027, up 15% from the previous multi-year business plan, with the exploration and production segment maintaining the leading role, albeit with a slightly smaller share , while the refining area gained space.
In a relevant fact disclosed on Wednesday night, Petrobras still maintained its intention to divest up to 20 billion dollars in the next five years, despite the appeals of the transition group of the elected government for sales to be suspended until the possession of a new management in 2023.
Although more robust, the new plan slightly reduced the share allocated to E&P, from 84% in the previous plan to 83%, while raising the total for refining, gas and energy to 12%, versus 10.4% in the program released in 2021.
The total investment planned for refining and natural gas rose to US$9.2 billion –with around 50% of the resources applied to expanding and increasing the quality and efficiency of refining–, while the E&P area is expected to receive US$64 billion , with 67% going to pre-salt.
Even so, the Single Federation of Petroleum Workers (FUP), aligned with the PT, said in a note that the Lula government should review investments, to include a greater increase in refining capacity, energy transition projects, with incentives for renewable sources, such as biofuels, and orders to the Brazilian naval industry, with the construction of platforms and vessels in the country, generating jobs in Brazil.
The amount of investments, however, is still higher than the average of the last six strategic plans, which was 72 billion dollars, scored the company, signaling “that investments have returned to pre-Covid levels”.
Amidst criticism from the transitional government over the company’s reduction in investments in recent years and the high dividends paid, the oil company said that the plan “consolidates Petrobras as the largest investor in the country”.
In addition, the state-owned company claimed to have included in the document all the projects that presented economic viability according to the company’s governance and approval criteria, “there being no damming of projects due to budget restrictions”.
The oil company pointed out that in addition to the estimated amount, the company will allocate around US$20 billion in chartering new platforms, thus totaling nearly US$100 billion in project resources.
As determined by accounting standards, values for units leased in the business plan end up being accounted for as a debt and not as an investment.
New frontiers of oil exploration also gained attention from the new plan.
“With the objective of seeking new oil and gas frontiers, including opportunities in non-associated gas, the plan considers a total investment in exploration of US$6 billion, approximately 50% of which in the equatorial margin”, said the company.
On the refining side, Petrobras plans to invest in eight new processing units, in addition to six large-scale adaptation works in existing units.
“With these projects concluded, it is expected that Petrobras’ refining processing and conversion capacity will increase by 154,000 barrels per day (bpd) and the S-10 Diesel production capacity will be increased by more than 300,000 bpd”, stated.
The oil company highlighted that investments until 2027 include US$4.4 billion, or 6% of the total amount, in projects aimed at the company’s low carbon initiatives.
PRODUCTION AND DIVESTMENTS
The plan maintains an active portfolio management, with expectations of disinvestments between 10 billion and 20 billion dollars in the five-year period, “which will contribute to improving operational efficiency, return on capital and generating additional cash to carry out new investments more adherent to the company’s strategy”.
The oil company reiterated the view of its current command that active management allows it to focus on assets that have the potential to raise the expected return on its portfolio in a sustainable way and/or reduce the risks perceived by Petrobras.
The production target for 2023 was “maintained” at 2.1 million barrels of oil per day, according to the oil company, with a variation of 4% more or less, considering the adjustments of the Co-participation Agreement of Sépia and Atapu, which reduced 0.1 million boed compared to the previous plan.
The total production target for 2023, including oil and natural gas, was also maintained at 2.6 million boed, considering a plus or minus 4% variation.
“The oil production projection for 2024 and 2025 was reduced by approximately 0.1 million bpd, compared to the previous plan, due to adjustments in the well interconnection schedule”, detailed the company.
In 2027, the company expects to reach 2.5 million bpd and 3.1 million boed.
The production curve considers the entry of 18 new FPSO-type platforms in the period, 11 of which were chartered, six owned and one not operated.
Among the main assumptions for the financeability of the plan, Petrobras said it considered prices in line with the international market, a benchmark of US$8 billion, gross debt between US$50 billion and US$65 billion.
Average Brent oil for the plan’s five-year period is estimated at US$75/barrel and the average exchange rate for the same period is US$5.
The oil company expects to pay between US$195 billion and US$205 billion in taxes and government participations by 2027 and US$20 billion to US$30 billion in dividends to the Union.
#Petrobras #raises #investments #US78 #billion #maintains #production #asset #sales #ISTOÉ #DINHEIRO