Pensions, a hypothesis that scares the workers
Pensions, what will happen next year? Many ask themselves. And it is a cold shower for those who hope in the reform promised by the Draghi government: the resources are not allocated within the Def.
Proof that the pension reform it is no longer a priority for the government, if it ever was, now overtaken by the energy issue and the war in Ukraine. There is therefore a risk of repeating what had already happened in 2020, when the debate on pensions had already begun – with the then Minister for Labor Nunzia Catalfo – only to be interrupted with the outbreak of the pandemic.
The fact that in the Def resources for pension reform are not mentioned, however, it does not mean that there will be no interventions aimed at revising the pension system. Simply, as we have argued for some time, there will be no crazy expenses by this government, as the first objective is to ensure sustainability of public finances. Therefore, those hoping for a significant lowering of the retirement age as early as next year will be disappointed: if anything, there will be an alternative to 102, this could only be reserved for some profiles.
According to the estimates of the Defpension spending will start running again from 2025, reaching 16.7% of GDP in 2030 and 17.4% in 2036. This despite the fact that the Draghi government has decided not to continue with 100, providing an alternative – share 102 – limited both in terms of audience and costs.
There is no mention of useful resources to change the pension system from 1 January 2023, as Mario had promised Dragons during the debate that led to the approval of the budget law for 2022. Resources needed if you want to actually go beyond what is established by the reform Fornerobut which may not be useful if the reform were to be limited to measures on a limited audience.
The Government does not reject the promised pension reform. On the other hand, it is mentioned in the guidelines of the Ministry of Labor, and the same minister Orlando a few days ago confirmed his intention to continue the dialogue with the trade unions on all the issues already open, such as pensions, precariousness and wages, while adding however, that with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine “the hierarchy of these issues has changed”.
In light of this, what should we expect for the pension reform? According to Franco, there are three points that must be addressed, according to https://www.money.it/:
find solutions that allow forms of flexibility in exit;
identify a way to strengthen supplementary pensions;
deepen the pension prospects of the younger generations.
For the moment, no one likes the buffer solution chosen for 2022 to ensure greater flexibility in leaving: in fact, there are too few people who can access 102 so as to anticipate access to retirement at the age of 64.
Those hoping for a different measure in 2023, therefore aimed at a larger audience, will have to change their mind. Solutions such as those required by labor unions – who for months have been asking for access to a pension at 62 years of age or, alternatively, with 41 years of contributions – are not in the thoughts of the Draghi government. They weren’t before, let alone now that the outbreak of war in Ukraine has set new priorities.
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