Pakistan goes to the polls in a climate of violence and political division

In this super electoral year, marked by the possible change of chips in much of the geopolitical chessboard, one of the countries to go to the polls is Pakistan. The atomic nation, and the fifth most populous country in the world – some 250 million inhabitants – is holding general elections this Thursday from which the Parliament will emerge and will have to invest the next prime minister. The scenario, to summarize, is turbulent. The campaign has been marked by the judicial persecution of Imran Khan, the winner of the last elections, disqualified as a candidate, and the return of the self-exiled former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, previously convicted and now rehabilitated, as the probable winner. In the background, the shocks of a growing spiral of violence. On the eve of the elections, two explosions next to candidates' offices in the unstable region of Balochistan, bordering Iran and Afghanistan, have left at least 26 dead and more than 50 injured. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack. Another attack in the province of Khyber Pashtunjuá, which also borders Afghanistan, has injured another five people.

The political environment is tense and polarized in one of the most stormy states on the planet. The deployment of some 700,000 security forces and bodies is expected. The border crossings with Iran and Afghanistan will remain closed, according to the Reuters agency. More than half of the voting centers in the country, which also elects regional legislative assemblies, have been declared at risk of violence or attacks, reports the Efe agency; up to 80% in Balochistan, a key province for China's growing interests in the country – it is a transit area for the New Silk Road, Beijing's infrastructure megaprogram – but where militia activity has intensified in the last times. In January, a tense missile exchange between Iran and Pakistan against insurgents in these borderlands made the world hold its breath for a few days, threatening to export the Middle East crisis to Asia.

The nearly 128 million citizens called to the polls choose between options that carry a turbulent legacy of political troubles, accusations and convictions for corruption. The nation, which also has border disputes with India, although silenced in recent times, remains mired in a post-pandemic economic crisis, with rampant inflation, and, while the Chinese presence increases, is in the phase of redefining ties with States. United States, following the departure of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021.

The likely winner of the vote is the recently returned Nawaz Sharif, 74, candidate of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, who has served as prime minister three times, although he has never managed to finish a term. He resigned from office for the last time in 2017, surrounded by corruption investigations that ended in a prison sentence and lifelong political disqualification. After fleeing Pakistan and spending four years in self-imposed exile, he returned to the country last October, where by then the political tables had turned and the winds had become favorable. He appealed his convictions, which were annulled in December, and, shortly after, presented his candidacy to the National Assembly for this Thursday's elections.

The imprisoned candidate

The second party in the running, the Pakistan Justice Movement, is like a shadow. Its leader, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, 71, a former national cricket star, is in prison and still racking up sentences. Numerous candidates from the party have also been imprisoned for criminal or terrorism charges that, according to them, are politically motivated. Those who are running do so as independents, after the Electoral Commission prohibited the party from using its emblematic symbol, a cricket bat, in the elections (the image is key in a country with a high illiteracy rate). The rallies they hold are dispersed by the police. His victory would be a surprise. The group has been blurring since the elections it won in 2018, although Khan remains a valued politician, especially among the young population, and his influence is projected on the elections.

With the leader behind bars and disqualified, the party has used a groundbreaking formula to spread its message: campaign videos in which Khan speaks from prison, using a voice cloned by artificial intelligence. “Our party is not allowed to hold public rallies,” he denounces in a clip collected by Reuters. “Our people are being kidnapped, and their families are being harassed,” he adds.

Among the forces in the fray is also the Pakistan People's Party, heir to a political dynasty. It is led by Bilawal Bhutto, 35, son of Benazir Bhutto, the first woman to serve as prime minister in the country, assassinated in 2007, and grandson of also former prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.

The elections are partly reminiscent of those of 2018, but in reverse. Then, with Nawaz Sharif persecuted by justice and fleeing abroad, Khan won at the polls after managing to excite a good part of the electorate, especially the young and educated sectors of Pakistani society. But, once in command, he came into conflict with the country's powerful military, whose influence continues to be decisive. He was removed from power in a parliamentary motion of no confidence in 2022, and replaced by the brother of the previous prime minister, Shahbaz Sharif, which would pave the way for the self-exiled return. Upon his fall, Khan aired an alleged plot to be overthrown by the military with the approval of the United States. A wave of protests broke out, resulting in riots and thousands of arrests. He entered prison in 2023, and has accumulated several sentences for corruption, treason and illegal marriage. He has been convicted three times in the last week alone, and still has various cases pending with the justice system.

The office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has expressed its concern about the elections. The High Commissioner's spokesperson Liz Throssell denounced this Tuesday at least 24 attacks by armed groups against members of political parties in the period prior to the elections. And she expressed her “concern” about “the pattern of harassment, arrests and prolonged imprisonment of leaders of the Pakistan Justice Movement and their sympathizers,” in addition to the multiple legal cases against Khan. “We hope that the higher courts will carefully review these findings in accordance with due process and the right to a fair trial,” she said.

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