“Even with everything conspiring against it, the Venezuelan opposition has something in its favor: the strength to make a difference and mobilize voters against Maduro,” said former Venezuelan Attorney General José Ignácio Hernández, who served in the interim government of opposition leader Juan Guaidó (2019-2020).
Hernández gave an interview to People’s Gazettepointing out some political perspectives for Venezuela after the elections this Sunday (28), in which the dictator Nicolás Maduro, who seeks to keep Chavismo in power, and Edmundo González Urrutia, the opposition candidate, are competing.
The former prosecutor is known for his critical stance towards the Nicolás Maduro regime. He has been an active voice against human rights violations and arbitrary actions committed by the Chavista dictatorship over the years.
Read the full interview:
Candidate Edmundo González, supported by María Corina Machado, has shown a clear lead in the polls. Given Maduro’s control of the National Electoral Council (CNE), is it possible that the opposition will be able to secure victory despite the possibility of fraud?
Jose Ignacio Hernandez – The opposition took a huge risk by deciding to participate in electoral conditions that were clearly manipulated and fraudulent, from unconstitutional political control over the National Electoral Council (CNE) to the tampering with the electoral register, the denial of voting rights to Venezuelans abroad, and the disqualifications and political persecution. The opposition has everything against it, to be honest, but it does have something in its favor: it is the only force that can make a difference in the country due to its ability to mobilize voters.
If abstention on Sunday is low, similar to the abstention in 2013, there is a strong possibility that the opposition will have enough votes for Edmundo González to be proclaimed president, despite all the fraud. On the other hand, if the opposition fails to mobilize and abstention is more similar to that of 2018, it is very likely that Maduro will be able to consummate his fraud and proclaim himself “president” again.
The loyalty of the Armed Forces to Nicolás Maduro is often discussed and is a key factor in the event of democratic change. Is there a consensus of support for Nicolás Maduro or are there significant fissures that could lead to a split? What would be the possible scenarios in the event of an internal split?
Jose Ignacio Hernandez – Regarding the loyalty of the Armed Forces, the problem is that they have collapsed alongside the State. They are no longer an organic and hierarchical body with full capacity for action, which limits their ability to intervene to influence the electoral process. This does not mean that they cannot do so, but it is quite limited. The institutional fragility of the Armed Forces is the main factor that limits their intervention in the electoral result.
Dictators around the world, such as Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Ceaușescu in Romania and Saddam Hussein in Iraq, have all faced tragic ends after losing power. Should Maduro fear for his personal safety if he is deposed? Is there a transition plan that includes a fair trial or should there be an amnesty for crimes committed during his authoritarian regime?
Jose Ignacio Hernandez – Maduro, of course, fears for his personal safety, which is to be expected in his circumstances. He and his elites are aware of this. That is why I have insisted on the need to adopt a transitional justice strategy in Venezuela, which guarantees not only the lives and safety of those in power today, but also, to the extent possible, their political rights.
In the scenario in which González is proclaimed the winner, Maduro will have a high capacity to negotiate the terms and conditions for handing over power, finding ample possibilities for negotiation with the opposition and the international community.
María Corina Machado and Edmundo González are demonstrating remarkable strength in terms of popularity and popular mobilization. Can the pressure of the demonstrations effectively change anything in Venezuela or will it be another case of democratic frustration in the country?
Jose Ignacio Hernandez – The big difference with the current scenario is that this is the only situation in which popular demonstrations in Venezuela occur in the context of an election. In 2017, attempts were unsuccessful to call for early elections, but Maduro only had to resist the popular demonstrations. Now, he can no longer resist, as the time for elections has arrived with Venezuelans mobilized.
He tried to repeat his 2018 strategy, with elections and demobilized voters, but he failed. The peculiarity of this moment is that popular demonstration can translate into a flow of votes and Maduro’s ability to erase that flow of votes is, frankly, limited.
In other Latin American countries, the processes of democratic opening in dictatorships began with voting, as in Nicaragua after the Civil War and in Chile after the end of the Pinochet regime. Could something similar happen in Venezuela? What are the reasons to believe that it is possible to leave a dictatorial regime through elections?
Jose Ignacio Hernandez – If change is to occur in Venezuela against all odds, it will be through a long and tortuous path, of which the 2024 elections will be an important milestone. Unlike Chile and Nicaragua, which have undergone democratic transitions, we cannot interpret Sunday’s elections without considering what has happened in Venezuela since 2015.
When I am asked whether this would imply a very rapid transition in Venezuela, I answer no, because this process began at least in 2015. Edmundo González today represents the same popular will that voted for change in 2015. Therefore, this change would be unique, consolidating itself from a process that began in 2015.
From an international perspective, Maduro still has alliances with authoritarian regimes that remain in power, such as Cuba and Nicaragua, as well as support from Russia, China and Iran. In addition, he has international socialist allies in the region, such as Lula da Silva in Brazil and Gustavo Petro in Colombia. Won’t these alliances use new strategies to keep the dictator Maduro in power?
Jose Ignacio Hernandez – Regarding Maduro’s alliances, I see that Cuba is too weakened, with too many internal problems to worry about Venezuela. Nicaragua can support Maduro “emotionally”, offer him asylum or call him, but geopolitically it has no influence. China is pragmatic, wants to recover its debt and, after Maduro’s mismanagement, may even prefer a new opposition government with a pragmatic stance. Russia and Iran are important players, but I don’t think they will send troops to Venezuela. These countries have their own problems and, although they kept Maduro in power, I doubt they can help reverse a voter turnaround.
Drug trafficking is seen as an instrument of power for Maduro’s dictatorship. Examples such as the Cartel de los Soles, formed by high-ranking military officers, show how these criminal groups reinforce their positions of power. Won’t it be even more difficult to deal with these military men, considering that, in addition to their crimes against the Venezuelan people, they also participate in drug trafficking, which strengthens their positions of power? How can we deal with Venezuelan “narcosocialism”?
Jose Ignacio Hernandez – The penetration of drug trafficking is a symptom of a larger problem in Venezuela, which is a fragile state. The main problem to be solved in this sense is not political; the country has lost control of its territory.
Transitional justice, as I see it, would help the state gradually regain its ability to control its territory. With Maduro reelected through fraud, this would exacerbate political conflict and institutional fragility. An opposition government, with broad political and international agreements, would be in a better position to regain territorial control.
Finally, if González wins, we cannot consider it to be a normal six-year presidency. I see his presidency as a transitional one, with the mission of addressing the humanitarian emergency, stabilizing the economy, regaining control of the territory, and reestablishing constitutional order, ultimately allowing for free and fair elections in the future. This process is more like a “constituent moment.”
What is expected for Venezuela with these elections?
Jose Ignacio Hernandez – Venezuela needs institutional stability, reconciliation and political pluralism to begin the slow and complex path of economic and democratic recovery. A necessary condition for this is an election that is not repudiated, that is not controversial, that is accepted.
This objective is at risk due to the accumulation of fraud, human rights violations and abuses committed by the Maduro regime in recent years. Unfortunately, for this reason, I believe that a re-election of Chavismo under these circumstances will not provide the minimum institutional conditions to begin the slow path towards a transition.
This does not mean that González’s election will ensure the success of this transition, but at least we will have the minimum conditions to begin a process of democratic transition that must be based on pluralism, reconciliation, transitional justice, and even spaces of co-government where they are possible.
Who is Jose Ignacio Hernandez?
Hernández is a Venezuelan lawyer and university professor, known for his work in defense of the rule of law and democratic principles in Venezuela. With a PhD in Law from the Central University of Venezuela (UCV), he has a solid career both in academia and in the public sphere.
In academia, he is respected for his contributions to the study of Constitutional and Administrative Law. He has taught at institutions such as UCV and Universidad Católica Andrés Bello (UCAB), training several generations of jurists. His articles and books are important references for students and legal professionals.
In addition to his academic career in Venezuela, Hernández was a visiting professor at Harvard between 2019 and 2020, where he shared his expertise on legal and political issues affecting Venezuela. His work at Harvard has strengthened his international reputation, allowing him to contribute to the legal debate from a global perspective.
His analyses and criticisms are published in international media such as New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Affairs It is The Countryin which he discusses the Venezuelan crisis and solutions for restoring democracy.
Politically, Hernández advocates liberal democracy and respect for human rights. As Venezuela’s special prosecutor, appointed by the National Assembly, he worked to protect Venezuelan assets abroad and ensure compliance with international judicial decisions. In this role, he represented the interim government of Juan Guaidó and was instrumental in protecting Venezuelan assets abroad.
Specifically, it worked to freeze accounts and assets of Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) and the Venezuelan regime in several countries, preventing Nicolás Maduro’s leadership from accessing these funds.
Its actions aimed to preserve national assets and ensure that they were not used by Chavismo, seeking to pressure for a democratic transition and the restoration of constitutional order in Venezuela.
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