Catalans believe that achieving independence for Catalonia is very unlikely. This is the perception revealed by the annual survey carried out by the Institute of Political and Social Sciences (ICPS) of Catalonia, dependent on the Barcelona Provincial Council and the Autonomous University of Barcelona, which reveals that only 5% believe that the republic Catalan will be a reality. The data confirm that support for independence (39.5%) remains below support for belonging in Spain (52.5%). The institute assures that ERC has not capitalized on its leadership in the Generalitat of Catalonia and that Junts and the PSC have regained influence among the electorate. The survey also reveals that there is greater acceptance of immigration, but detects a growing rejection of feminism and homosexuality among younger men.
The results of the ICPS study confirm that the independence movement continues to lose steam in a context where the relationship of ERC and Junts with the state parties takes on greater relevance in the Congress of Deputies. The 1,200 responses collected by the Gesop institute were recorded in November of last year, in the middle of the negotiations between Junts and the PSOE for the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, a context that “affected” the data collected, according to the analysts. And in this juncture, Junts capitalizes on the political context better than Esquerra. Junts' voting intention in the Parliament almost doubles in one year, going from 8% to 15.5%, while ERC goes from 18% to 19.5%. The PSC remains at 16%. The survey also shows a transfer of votes towards Junts from Esquerra (10%, compared to 4.9% who do the opposite) and even from the CUP (10.9%). “This shows that Junts has recovered a certain irradiation among the pro-independence voter,” Oriol Bartomeus, director of the ICPS, explained this Thursday.
There are more reasons for joy in the post-convergent party. Former president Carles Puigdemont is the preferred candidate among Catalans to hold the presidency of the Generalitat. 16.7% of those surveyed consider the leader of Junts as the preferred favorite to lead the Government, a figure higher than that of Oriol Junqueras (12.8%) and Salvador Illa (11.7%). Highlights the support that the former president gets between the electorate of the CUP (29.1%) and Esquerra (19.3%), where it even surpasses the current one president Pere Aragonès. The lack of overall support that Aragonès receives (7.3%) is striking. The question allowed only an open response and 36% did not offer any preference.
But if Junts rises, the independence movement continues to lose muscle. The preference for independence as the best territorial division continues to be the favorite for those surveyed, although with a constant decrease since 2012 (from 44% to the current 34%), when the independence race began. the same president of the Generalitat at that time, Artur Mas, admitted two weeks ago in The vanguard that “the project today does not have the conditions to move forward.” Behind them are the interest in maintaining the autonomous community (29%), a federal state (20.6%) and a region of Spain (8.6%, double that of 2012). “In the dichotomy of independence yes or independence no, the favorable response is always a little higher because some defenders of the federal relationship join the response,” Bartomeus understands.
Despite wishes, however, respondents minimize the real possibilities for independence to be consumed. Only 5% consider that the processes will end with independence, a figure similar to last year (4%), but decreasing since 2015 (17%). Among pro-independence voters, the percentage of those convinced is higher (12%, compared to 43% in 2015). On the other hand, the majority (54%) believe that processes will culminate in greater self-government for Catalonia.
youth machismo
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The survey also analyzes the population's perception of social matters and detects results “that tell us something,” according to Bartomeus in relation to a growing youth machismo. 15.4% of boys between 18 and 24 years old consider homosexuality “serious”, a percentage much higher than the rest of the age groups (only the 3.8% rejection rate is higher among people over 65 years old). ). The same thing happens with feminism: 58% of young boys “agree” with the concept of feminism, the age group with the least support. The opposite occurs with women. The younger they are (between 18 and 34 years old), the more they support it (approximately 81%).
Regarding immigration, the survey validates an improvement in the outlook towards immigrants. 24% of those surveyed consider it serious to have a mosque close to home, compared to 38.3% in 2001; while 2.3% consider it serious to have an immigrant neighbor, compared to 10.9% in 2001. “Either there is not as much social breeding ground on the subject or we have not found it,” analyzes the director of the ICPS, who adds that the problems derived from the relationship with immigrants respond to issues “more social than economic.”
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