Donald Trump is going to take office with a defined program and a cohesive team to put it into practice. The president of 2025 knows not only what he wants, but also how he wants to achieve the objective he intends
On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will take office and will implement a battery of measures that will affect the democratic system itself in the United States first and that of the European Union next.
It will not be like January 20, 2017, when Trump became president without being prepared for it. It had not occurred to him that he was going to win the election and be president of the United States. Hence, he was not even able to appoint the hundreds of senior officials who are essential to implement the political directions of any new president. Donald Trump had to improvise on the fly and had to continually replace the first senior officials he had initially appointed.
This time it won’t be like that. Donald Trump is going to take office with a defined program and a cohesive team to put it into practice. The president of 2025 knows not only what he wants, but also how he wants to achieve his intended goal.
Just because it is like this does not mean that it will achieve everything it sets out to achieve. There will be resistance within the American political system and there will also be resistance outside. But the threat to democracy in the United States itself and in the rest of the democratically constituted countries in general and in the European Union in particular is something that we have to reckon with now and for which we have to prepare.
In the European Union we are not in a good position to do so. We will see if France has a Government on January 20, 2025 and we will see how the political program that President Trump launches affects the general elections in Germany on February 23.
Nothing indicates from the way in which the appointment of François Bayrou as President of the Government has taken place, that his appointment will have a longer run than that of Michel Barnier. It starts in a position of superior weakness and raining in the wet. It is not only possible, but even probable, that by January 20 it will be the resignation of Emmanuel Macron and the holding of presidential elections that is being talked about.
As far as the German elections are concerned, it is also more than likely that, with the results of the polls, it will not be easy to form a Government without the participation of Alternative for Germany. The collapse of the socialist party may make it impossible to re-establish the Grand Coalition, which requires a certain balance between the two major parties. A socialist party that is not “large” cannot be part of a Grand Coalition.
The impact of the policy of the American presidency occupied by Donald Trump could set in motion a process of disintegration of the European Union, which was born as a consequence of the imposition of the principle of democratic legitimation on a continental scale after the fall of the Berlin Wall and whose Survival depends on the survival in a credible manner of said principle of legitimacy.
The lack of credibility of democracy on a continental scale will be transferred to the Member States. It is already operating like this in several States, which will possibly be strengthened with the impetus of the presidency of the United States.
Within this horizon, it is more than likely that Junts will decide to permanently break with the Government chaired by Pedro Sánchez, triggering an electoral process that may call into question our government formula, thus contributing to the further disintegration of the European Union.
#edge #cliff
