The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is in 77 countries. “It’s spreading at a rate we’ve never seen with any variant,” says World Health Organization director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Data especially from South Africa – also related to vaccine protection – suggest mild symptoms compared to the danger that characterizes the Delta variant.
“We are concerned that people are dismissing Omicron as mild. Of course, by now we have learned that we underestimate this virus at our peril. Even if Omicron causes less severe illness, the number of cases could once again overwhelm unprepared health systems.” says the chief executive of the WHO.
The spotlight is on vaccines and the picture begins to take a more defined shape thanks to the data coming from South Africa, where Omicron has been identified. The third dose of Pfizer vaccine lifts the defense. Already with two doses, the protection should be at 70% according to a study, conducted on ‘real world’ data from the country.
Two other works, not yet published and therefore not peer-reviewed, also observe theimpact of the third dose, showing after the booster an increase in the ability to neutralize Omicron compared to the double dose, while remaining at lower levels than those that occur against Delta.
To trace a picture of the shield effect of the two doses is a work conducted by Discovery Health, the largest health insurer in South Africa, on 211 thousand positive cases, of which 78 thousand attributed to Omicron. The analysis, bounced in the international press, showed a protection against hospitalization from Omicron that is described by the authors of the work as still “very good”. Furthermore, the risk of hospitalization among adults with Covid was 29% lower than the initial pandemic wave. However, the study also found that the vaccine appears to have provided only 33% protection against infection, far less than the level achieved compared to other variants in the country.
The data from South Africa, Ryan Noach, Chief Executive of ‘Discovery Health’ said in a press conference, “shows an exponential increase in both new infections and test positive rates during the first 3 weeks of this wave,” elements that seem to suggest. that Omicron is “a highly transmissible variant with a rapid spread in the community”. But, adds Noach, “what is encouraging at this stage is the flatter trajectory of hospital admissions, probably indicating a lesser severity of this wave.”
Paul Burton, chief researcher of the United States, stands on a different line Modern. The scientist says he “does not believe that Omicron is a milder and less severe version of the current virus”. It is probable, he adds, that “in the coming months the Omicron and Delta variants of Covid-19 will coexist”. The one caused by Omicron ” I would say that it is actually a serious disease ”.
Burton defines ” worrying ” that there will be ” a situation in which individuals will be co-infected giving this virus the opportunity to evolve and mutate further ”. At the same time, “we must not panic, we have many tools at our disposal, we have learned so much about this virus in the past two years and we can continue to fight it, but I think Omicron poses a real threat.”
In Europe in the last 24 hours another 441 cases have been reported according to the bulletin of the ECDC, European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. The overall total rises to 2,127 confirmed cases so far, reported by 25 countries in the area. Italy, according to the ECDC table, remains firm at 27. Compared to yesterday, two new countries have been added to the list of those that have communicated the presence of Omicron, Luxembourg (1 case) and Hungary (2).
The official numbers, in reality, seem to photograph only a portion of reality. In Great Britain, explains the Minister of Health Sajid Javid, only 4,713 confirmed cases are recorded: however, scientists estimate that the real number of people who are infected every day is 42 times higher, about 200,000. The risk is to reach 1 million daily cases within a few weeks, with an unsustainable burden for hospitals.
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