Again dark news for the German economy: The organization for economic cooperation and development, or OECD for short, expects economic growth in this year to be 0.4 percent.
The OECD assesses the situation even worse than in December. Even then, she had corrected her forecast for 2025 downwards and only expected 0.7 percent growth. Germany ranked in the last place of all industrialized nations. OECD expert Isabell Koske pointed out the weakening export industry. In addition, Chinese competition is created by German industry, for example in the automotive sector.
All of these factors still play a role. However, most economic experts expect the financial plans of the planned coalition of the Union and the SPD noticeably revitalize the economy in Germany. Because the expenses for defense will be largely excluded from the debt brake in the future and a special fund for infrastructure will also be put on, the German state will be spending an additional one trillion euros in the coming years.
According to the experts, the positive growth effects that result from this do not appear at short notice. For example, the Munich IFO Institute even corrected its forecast for 2025 on Monday, from 0.4 percent to only 0.2 percent, including the political uncertainties that are based on Donald Trump. It is not until 2026 that a slight improvement was to be expected. Then the IFO scientists expect 0.8 percent growth.
Other institutes are more optimistic. For example, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) considers an increase in gross domestic product of 2.1 percent in 2026 – but only if the new federal government listed by Friedrich Merz actually comes about and brings its spending packages by the Bundestag and Federal Council.
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