The Republican candidates for the White House will meet this Wednesday in the fourth debate of the primary candidates. Missing from the event will once again be former President Donald Trump, a prominent leader in polls among his party’s voters, who believes that the best way to preserve his advantage is to stay out of it. Compared to the first debate, in which there were eight candidates, in this one there are only four left. And among them there are two, the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and the former ambassador to the UN and former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, who are competing to be the alternative to Trump.
The trajectories of both are opposite. DeSantis, 45, was close to Trump in voting intentions before entering the campaign. However, since he did it, he has done nothing but lose support. He presented his candidacy in a failed Twitter interview with Elon Musk as host and since then he has not found the tone or message of the campaign. He hesitated on whether to attack Trump while he mocked him. He leaked his strategy for the debates, which he was then unable to implement. And his campaign has had management problems. Some big donors have begun to turn their backs on him. His voting intention among Republicans, which was around 40%, has fallen to 13%. based on FiveThirtyEight survey aggregationcompared to Trump’s 59%.
Nikki Haley, on the other hand, is having a relatively sweet moment in the campaign. The 51-year-old politician has recently achieved the endorsement of American for Prosperity Action (AFP Action), the powerful and influential conservative network founded by the billionaire Koch brothers. She has shined in previous debates, where she has shown her experience in international politics, her willingness to address important reforms, and her firm but moderate tone. Her clashes with businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, 38, have brought her character to light. Polls point to her as the rival who would ensure the Republican victory against Joe Biden in the presidential elections on November 5, 2024, but for that she would have to first defeat Trump in the primaries. Among Republican voters, Their voting intention has risen to 10.5% and in some polls he already appears ahead of DeSantis. Beating him would give him a huge boost when push comes to shove.
The Iowa caucuses on January 15, 2024 and the New Hampshire primary on the 23rd of that month decide only 62 of the nearly 2,500 delegates who will choose the Republican presidential candidate at the convention in July of next year. However, because they are the first, the result in them is often transcendent.
DeSantis has the support of the governor in Iowa and has visited each and every one of its counties. Much of his bet was on emerging from the caucuses as a viable alternative to Trump. Now, however, Haley is on his heels and there is a better chance that the governor of Florida will be third than first in that State. The former ambassador to the UN is already ahead in the polls in New Hampshire and in February she will play at home in South Carolina. Her figure attracts moderate Republican voters, whom Trump remains unconvinced.
moment of truth
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Especially for Haley, who is the one who has maintained an upward trajectory, this Wednesday’s debate is presented as the moment of truth. With fewer candidates on stage, there will be more time for each of the participants. She has been able to take advantage of it on previous occasions, but she needs to consolidate her tendency if she wants her candidacy to aspire to something more than the battle to come second.
The other two participants in this Wednesday’s debate in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, which is broadcast on the minority news network NewsMax, are Ramaswamy – who surprised in the first eight-way meeting in Milwaukee (Wisconsin) in August, but has since deflated — and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has never stood a chance with his openly anti-Trump speech. Christie’s withdrawal could benefit Haley.
The other four participants from the first debate have been left along the way. Former Vice President Mike Pence, 64, was the first to announce his retirement; He was then followed by Tim Scott, the only black senator in the Republican Party, aged 58, and this week he threw in the towel, Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota, aged 67. Without having participated in the debates due to lack of sufficient support, the mayor of Miami, Francis Suárez, has also stepped aside; radio host Larry Elder; businessman Perry Johnson and former Texas congressman Will Hurd, whose campaigns never even got off the ground. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, 72, who did enter the first debate, but whose role is less than marginal, has not formally resigned.
“The fourth debate is another fantastic opportunity for our Republican candidates to share our winning program with the American people,” said Ronna McDaniel in a statement this Monday, chairwoman of the Republican National Committee. The debates had been a decisive moment in the primary race in each election cycle, but with this year’s Trump boycott they have lost prominence. The Republican Party is considering changing the rules and allowing debates on the eve of the primaries that are not organized by the party itself, which until now required exclusivity from the candidates, so that there are more events in the days before the primaries.
While the debate is taking place, Trump will participate in fundraising events in Florida.
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