Niger | Junta asked Wagner for help – The researcher sees military intervention as unlikely

Historical ones the times would come if the Economic Community of West Africa (Ecowas) followed through on the threat and intervened militarily in the Niger coup.

This is the assessment of a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute, familiar with sub-Saharan Africa From Katariina Mustas.

“It is quite unlikely that we will see any major military intervention in the coming days. The threshold for that is terribly high and the threshold for intervention has only risen since the early days of the coup,” says Mustasilta.

Niger is a landlocked country in West Africa with about 26 million inhabitants. The country gained independence from France in 1960. Despite its uranium and oil reserves, Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world.

At the end of July, a military force seized power from the country’s president From Mohamed Bazoumi, who was elected to power in 2021 in Niger’s first democratic elections. A few days later, the head of the presidential guard, Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani was announced as the country’s new leader.

The economic community Ecowas has demanded that Niger’s military junta, which has been in power for less than two weeks, return power to Bazoum. The community threatened military intervention if the demand was not met within a week.

The deadline for the request expired on Sunday, when the military junta announced it would close the country’s airspace due to the threat of intervention. In addition, the junta said that it would respond to all attempts to break the blockade “immediately and energetically”.

Niger’s neighboring countries, Burkina Faso and Mali, have already announced their support for the country in the event of an intervention.

Ecowas announced on Monday that it would hold a meeting on the situation in Niger in the capital of the country’s southern neighbor Nigeria, Abuja, on Thursday.

Mustasilta of the Foreign Policy Institute points out that the economic community is in a challenging situation.

“There is a risk of a wider regional armed conflict in the intervention. Within Ecowas, Mali and Burkina Faso have already positioned themselves on Niger’s side. A military intervention would also have the risk of breaking up Ecowas.”

“On the other hand, if nothing happens, it weakens the credibility of Ecowas. If such an ultimatum has been given and nothing happens, what does that say about Ecowas”, wonders Mustasilta.

Four of the 15 Ecowas member states have had a military coup since 2020. In addition to Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, Guinea has also had a military coup in 2021.

“Ecowas’ actions have now been clearly rhetorically stronger and tougher than they have been in connection with other recent coups,” says Mustasilta.

The economic community the strict line may also be partly explained by the fact that it is currently chaired by Niger’s southern neighbor Nigeria.

The president of Nigeria may want to show political leadership for internal political reasons, but at the same time it will be very worrying for Nigeria if the security and governance of the country deteriorates as a result of the Niger coup, Mustasilta lists.

On the other hand, senators in Nigeria have called on the president to avoid military intervention, says, among other things France 24. At the same time, for example, Germany and Italy have urged Ecowas to extend the time limit, reports news agency AFP.

Mustasilta points out that Ecowas has historically been the most active of African regional organizations and the most successful in conflict prevention and peacebuilding.

In 2017, Ecowas intervened in The Gambia, which has been sought as a benchmark for the economic community’s demand for Niger.

However, Mustasilta points out that the situation in The Gambia was different at the time than it is in Niger now.

“There, the former president, who did not want to give up power, and the future president, who was declared the winner in the elections, were facing each other. Only a small part of the country’s security apparatus remained loyal to the president who lost the election, and the international atmosphere around the crisis was also different.”

in Niger the military regime is entrenched day by day. Among other things, it has the support of the army, and on Sunday, an estimated thousands of junta supporters gathered at the Niamey stadium in the country’s capital.

Many junta supporters carried Russian flags and portraits of junta leaders. For example White House however, has stated that Russia probably had no part in the coup.

The Russian mercenary group Wagner has also expressed its support for the coup. News agency AP told on Sunday that Niger’s military junta had asked Wagner for help.

Mustasilta sees the role of Russia and Wagner in Niger as mostly opportunistic.

“The role mainly comes from the fact that Niger’s current situation means deteriorating relations with, for example, the United States, France and the EU, and Niger’s leaders need new partners. It may also be in Russia’s interests to increase its own influence in Niger,” he says.

of Niger the situation is also significant from a western point of view. Niger has been an important strategic partner for the EU and especially for France.

There have been about 1,500 French soldiers in Niger fighting jihadists in the Sahel region. In addition, there have been about a thousand US soldiers in the country.

Last week, the military junta announced its dismissal military treaties with France.

Mustasilta points out that Niger has played a big role in the fight against terrorism. At the same time, the deterioration of the country’s internal security may mean increasing migration to Europe.

Black bridge estimates that Ecowas will continue intensive diplomacy and economic sanctions to defuse the situation.

Several countries and international organizations have announced that they will suspend aid payments to Niger. It is believed that this will hit the country, which is already considered the poorest in the world, hard.

“Sanctions are beginning to be seen more strongly in Niger, but it does not necessarily affect the situation, but mainly makes life difficult for the people and the military junta,” says Mustasilta.