Netanyahu's dilemma: facilitate a truce to free Gaza hostages or maintain military pressure

The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, faces a dilemma that hangs over his head like a sword of Damocles: prioritize a truce for the release of hostages or continue betting on military operations in Gaza to put an end to Hamas as the main objective. The president finds himself in the middle of the crossfire of those who defend one path, such as the United States or the families of the kidnapped, or the other, such as the most ultranationalist wing of his Executive. The prime minister's blunt refusal of what he considers unacceptable demands from Hamas for a ceasefire directs Israel, at least for the moment, towards the option of keeping its army's steamroller active in the Strip, where it has already killed almost 28,000. Palestinians.

This is demonstrated by the bombings and artillery attacks in recent hours on Rafah, the last plot of land to be conquered in the Strip and refuge for more than a million displaced people. These attacks are considered a prelude to the land occupation of a place that already lives under a “humanitarian nightmare,” according to António Guterres, Secretary General of the UN. Meanwhile, the mediating countries do not throw in the towel and try to keep contacts alive. Since this Thursday, in Cairo, the Egyptian authorities and those of Qatar, two of the intermediary countries along with the United States, are trying to unblock the talks with a Hamas delegation. As expressed at the moment by those responsible, the parties in conflict maintain positions that make this impossible.

According to a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute study center carried out at the end of January among the Jewish and Arab population of Israel, 51% of respondents defend the release of hostages as their main objective, while for 36%, the primary objective should be to put an end to with Hamas. “They are not contradictory objectives and we will not give up any,” defended this Thursday the Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, who met with the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, once again on tour in the region. “Israeli society as a whole is determined to return the kidnapped people home and eradicate Hamas,” he commented through the social network X (formerly Twitter).

The main focus of pressure on the street is the families of those who fell into the hands of the Islamist movement, which attacked Israel on October 7 and killed around 1,200 people, which opened the spigot of the conflict. “Please, Prime Minister, if you continue down this path, there will be no more hostages to release. Regain our trust, release them now.” This was the plea made on Wednesday night by Adina Moshe, one of the hostages released, after 49 days in Gaza, at the end of November during the previous ceasefire. Moshe was one of the five kidnapped women who participated in an event in Tel Aviv following Netanyahu's refusal to accept the conditions proposed by Palestinian militants for a new truce.

Kobi Michael, an Israeli analyst at the Institute for the Study of National Security (INSS), recognizes that there is “tension” between the two objectives that mark Netanyahu's dilemma. But he has no doubt that “the only thing that can accelerate the negotiation between both sides is Israel's military pressure on Hamas.” He believes Qatar and Egypt must increase pressure on the Islamists to change their stance. Hamas, he adds in a telephone conversation, is “emotionally terrorizing” Israelis, especially the families of those kidnapped, because it knows of the “sacred value of life” that prevails in Israel. “The people of Israel understand very well that we cannot accept the agreement at any price,” he concludes.

The priority of the hostages

Not everyone agrees on prioritizing military intervention to overthrow Hamas. “Releasing the hostages is a national, pragmatic and moral duty. It is not more important than eradicating Hamas, but it is much more urgent and, consequently, it must be the priority,” defends Ehud Barak, former prime minister, also in favor of calling elections as soon as possible due to what he considers Netanyahu's inability to manage. the country. “Approximately a third of the hostages are no longer alive, hence the need to act immediately” and not reaching this agreement will mark “Israeli society as a whole for generations to come,” adds the former Chief of the General Staff. and one of Israel's most accomplished soldiers, in an article published on the Channel 12 website. “Israel needs to make a strategic choice between the [Joe] Biden and the vision presented by [Itamar] Ben Gvir and [Bezalel] Smotrich”, he points out in reference to the preferences of the US president and two of the most radical ministers in the Government.

Netanyahu “does not want to say no to a US president who is personally involved in the efforts to free the prisoners,” understands Akiva Eldar, a political analyst for the newspaper Haaretz, in statements to the Al Jazeera network. The prime minister “is interested in negotiations, but I am not sure if most of the captives will be alive then, and they cannot wait until Netanyahu and Hamas come up with an absolute and final agreement,” he added.

The families keep up the pressure: “We have reached the moment of truth, the moment in which we must decide who lives and who dies, who will return and who will become prey to inhuman monsters. “136 hostages are now waiting in tunnels, without oxygen, without food, without water and without hope, waiting for you to save them,” they warned in a statement. Of those 136, authorities estimate that at least thirty have already died, either during captivity or in the attack on October 7. “If the hostages do not come home, all high school students, all mothers and fathers should know that they could be next. “That they live in a State that is not committed to their security, that mutual responsibility in the State has died,” they add.

For Labor's Ehud Barak, Israel is like a Titanic which is sinking without remission with Netanyahu at the helm, hence calling for elections “as soon as possible.” He proposes June because delaying them further, to the end of this year or early 2025, would give Netanyahu a “lifeline,” he argues. In this way, the former prime minister understands, the current president could avoid Joe Biden, who faces elections next November, and thus manage his continuity with the help of ministers such as Smotrich and Ben Gvir. These defend a strong military hand in Gaza, the expulsion of the Palestinians from that enclave and its permanent reoccupation with Israeli civilians and military personnel.

The current war is the longest and toughest that Israel has faced since its establishment as a State in 1948. The conflict is now entering its fifth month, while, between March and April, the Muslim community will celebrate the holy month of Ramadan. United States, according to sources cited by The Times of Israelfears that the most radical ministers of the Israeli Government, such as that of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, could take advantage of these dates, of maximum sensitivity, to fan the fire with visits such as those he has already made on previous occasions to the Esplanade of the Mosques, in the old part of Jerusalem.

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