Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) may be appointed by the NATO member states as the new Secretary General of the alliance before the end of March. This increases the chance that the VVD would have to put someone else forward as outgoing prime minister in the middle of the cabinet formation, which is currently at a standstill.
At a press meeting on Tuesday afternoon, US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith said that NATO countries would like to complete the selection procedure “in the first quarter of this calendar year”. Smith said she cannot say anything about “the person who will be selected”, but pointed out that Rutte himself has “expressed his interest” and NATO is therefore also looking at him.
It is no secret in Brussels that the Americans, who have a decisive vote in such an appointment, have been interested in Rutte as a candidate for a long time. According to several people involved, President Biden has already sounded him out a few times.
No campaign
It is still unclear when Rutte would start as NATO chief, if the appointment goes ahead. According to those involved, the Secretary General who has been there for almost ten years, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, still wants to attend the NATO summit in July in Washington.
Diplomatic sources say that Rutte is not campaigning for himself, but will talk to leaders of NATO countries if they want and then explain how he would fill that job. Regarding a much faster appointment than first thought, it is said in The Hague that the Netherlands is “not in charge”. The 31 NATO countries all decide on this together.
Rutte is not the only one who has raised his hand for the top job in recent months. The Estonian Prime Minister and the Latvian Minister of Foreign Affairs also openly expressed their interest. But their chances seem considerably smaller than Rutte's. This is once again confirmed by, for the first time, the open statements of the American ambassador.
Trump's statements
The fact that NATO countries want to complete the appointment procedure quickly is mainly because they want to prevent it from becoming mixed up with the distribution of top European positions, which traditionally takes place this summer after the European elections. “Ideally, this should be ready months before,” says a NATO diplomat.
Another factor is that the geopolitical situation is unstable, Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine continues and the threat to Europe remains high. It reinforces the need for stability and leadership certainty in NATO. Especially because it cannot be ruled out that Donald Trump will be elected again as American president later this year. Last weekend, Trump said that as far as he is concerned, Russia can “do whatever it wants” with NATO countries that spend too little money on defense. Rutte is known to have gotten along relatively well with Trump.
Stoltenberg would officially remain in office until October 1, but it is clear in NATO circles that he would like to quit sooner. His term has already been extended three times because there was no successor. Until last autumn, Mark Rutte always said that he was not available for the job at NATO, nor for a top European job. He kept saying he wanted to be a full-time teacher.
If he leaves the outgoing cabinet prematurely, the namesake of the cabinet will also leave. But he is not the first of Rutte IV to resign: Sigrid Kaag, Gunay Uslu and Ernst Kuipers from D66 and CDA member Wopke Hoekstra have also left. There is talk in The Hague that Dilan Yesilgöz, now outgoing Minister of Justice, is the ideal candidate to succeed Rutte as outgoing Prime Minister.
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Correction (February 13, 2024): An earlier version of this piece stated that the Lithuanian Foreign Minister was interested in the position of NATO chief, meaning the Latvian Foreign Minister. That has been adjusted above.
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