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New weapons, new promises: President Zelenskyj will probably leave the upcoming NATO summit dissatisfied. Trouble remains a possibility.
Washington DC – “Zelensky will have to accept what we offer him,” says an anonymous diplomat; a single voice who wishes to remain anonymous to the French Press Agency (AFP)The news agency calls “expectation management” the core of what the upcoming summit of the North Atlantic defense alliance in Washington will revolve around: Between July 9 and 11, NATO will deny Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky what he hopes to achieve in the Ukraine war and will try to sell him what he gets there as a win: presumably fresh money, probably fewer air defense systems than needed and certainly many promises. Confrontation is in the air.
“In 2008, the final declaration of the Bucharest summit stated: ‘Ukraine will become a NATO member,’” writes Nickolay Kapitonenko for the Friedrich Ebert StiftungThe summit in Vilnius in 2023 included the phrase: “The future of Ukraine lies in NATO.” “You have to look for the difference with a magnifying glass,” says the Ukrainian political scientist at the Institute of International Relations at the Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv. The difference is forced by the context.
Ukraine and NATO accession: not yet an issue this year
“The heads of state and government of the 31 NATO countries must deal with one question in particular at their summit: Can Ukraine expect an invitation to join? The answer will probably be: not yet” – this was Time Online about the summit in Vilnius, Lithuania; that was a year ago. The situation now in Washington is the same. Government representatives in Kiev expressed disillusionment before the Washington summit. “The chances of receiving an invitation to join are tending towards zero,” a representative of Ukraine told AFP.
“In Vilnius, NATO proved that it can think broadly and strategically and demonstrated its strength. The alliance has gained time. Russia is weakened, the alliance partners are strengthened. Ukraine has contributed significantly to this – even if only out of necessity. We can therefore demand more support and help. In contrast to NATO membership, this is a realistic demand.”
For a country to be admitted, there must be unanimity within NATO, which had already made Sweden’s accession difficult. The Eastern European states in particular are voting for admission, for example Poland and the Baltic states – they are demanding a timetable; an “irreversible” path for Ukraine to join, as the AFP writes. The USA and Germany remain vague – according to the news agency, the USA wants to build a “bridge to membership” at best and apparently has Germany on its side.
Basically, “Ukraine’s membership would not bring any added value to NATO,” argues Nickolay Kapitonenko. It would be a pure beneficiary of NATO’s mutual assistance obligation; however, NATO has so far settled its obligations to Ukraine comfortably with money and arms deliveries. “This is exactly what the member states’ commitments made on the sidelines of the summit amount to,” writes Kapitonenko. on the results of the previous summits since the one in Bucharest, Romania in 2008. “For Ukraine, waging war is a must because it is fighting for its own statehood and independence. But for NATO, it is not a must to invite Ukraine into its alliance so that this fight can continue.”
Germany and the USA: unity in fear of Putin’s revenge
Both the USA and Germany seem to be most hampered by the fear of confrontation with Russia. At the summit in Vilnius, Zelensky criticized the allies’ commitments as too weak and called it “absurd” not to invite Ukraine to join NATO. In Washington, such assessments should be avoided if possible. Confrontation with Zelensky must also be avoided at all costs. “We will be in a position to invite Ukraine to join the alliance if the allies agree and the conditions are met,” was the final statement in Vilnius.
“This led to an angry tweet from the Ukrainian president – and a scandal that is still weighing heavily on the allies’ stomachs,” the Frankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungThe conflict is simmering, just as it has been for a long time, when Selenskyj has to desperately scrape together supplies in the individual countries: “On the one hand, he comes as a hero, whom many in the US capital admire for his courage. On the other hand, he is also a supplicant” – that is what the Mirror written when Zelensky was last in the USA. Last September. The situations are similar.
The West of NATO is hesitating, the East of NATO is pushing: Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has already expressed her conviction in Vilnius that the only thing that guarantees Ukraine security against Russian aggression is the NATO mutual assistance pact through Article 5. Leaving Ukraine in a security policy grey zone is dangerous, she said, according to Time OnlineKapitonenko, on the other hand, claims that Ukraine is further away from NATO membership today than it was in 2008. According to him, it is wrong to believe that the war in Ukraine will force the West to accept the invaded country.
Stoltenberg’s prediction: Ukraine to join NATO in 2034
The argument that Ukraine is fighting on behalf of the freedom and security of all of Europe could not create any pressure on NATO, he argues: “The West avoids difficult conflicts of objectives, minimizes its security policy obligations and saves resources,” writes Kapitonenko, recognizing in NATO’s actions an effort to keep the defense alliance stable, which could potentially be jeopardized by a hasty admission of Ukraine – for example by Hungary or Turkey.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hopes that Ukraine will join the defence alliance within the next decade. “I very much hope that Ukraine will be an ally,” the Norwegian replied in an interview with German Press Agency to a question about a possible expansion of the alliance in the years up to 2034. He had also worked for this during his previous term in office at NATO, said Stoltenberg, who is now being replaced by the Dutchman Mark Rutte.
US analysts write open letter: Deterrence for Russia “wishful thinking”
Until then, Kapitonenko is calling on Ukrainian politicians to think about the foreign and security policy of the defense alliance despite the catastrophic situation. 60 US political scientists are currently warning in an open letter against Ukraine joining NATO – the magazine Politico published the letter in which the analysts dismiss the deterrent effect on Russia through the mutual assistance pact as “wishful thinking”; on the other hand, they consider the obligation to maneuver themselves into an uncontrollable situation as certain.
The current NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is “trying hard” to present the partners’ package “as a success for Ukraine”, judges the FAZ The “very strong package” that Stoltenberg announced during a press conference includes military aid of 40 billion euros for the coming year. Stoltenberg has been demanding such an amount for several years, but has not been able to get it through, reports the AFPAccording to the diplomats, however, it remains to be clarified which of the allies should provide how much funding – “so the promise remains vague”.
Result of the summit for Selenskyj: Fresh money, new weapons, more promises
The most concrete promise for Selenskyj could be additional air defence systems, the French Press AgencyGermany has now delivered a third Patriot system, and Romania has announced the prospect of one. The Netherlands is working with partners on another Patriot battery for Kiev, and Italy wants to deliver a comparable system called Samp/T. Despite this, diplomats say it remains uncertain whether NATO will be able to assemble the seven air defense systems requested by Ukraine to defend itself against the ongoing Russian attacks. Ukraine believes more than 20 are necessary.
All eyes are therefore on US President Joe Biden; Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced new US aid of €2.1 billion before the summit. This is to include “more Patriot and Nasams air defense systems on an accelerated schedule.” This summit could also be a platform for Biden’s candidacy: The Democrat is hoping for a boost over his Republican challenger Donald Trump in the presidential election in November.
Nickolay Kapitonenko probably considers any result to be a success for his people: “In Vilnius, NATO proved that it can think broadly and strategically and demonstrated its strength. The alliance has gained time. Russia is weakened, the alliance partners are strengthened. Ukraine has contributed significantly to this – even if only out of necessity. That is why we can demand more support and help. In contrast to NATO membership, this is a realistic demand.”
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