NATO | “Russia would blow and talk” – What would happen if Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership? Two defense experts are in charge

Helsinki / Stockholm

Military alliance NATO is now being talked about at the highest possible level in both Finland and Sweden.

The security policy situation in Europe and the Nordic countries is tense following Russia’s demands.

The United States, NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will be negotiating with Russia on Russia’s demands early next week. require a division of interests in Europe.

The situation has also triggered a lively debate about Finland’s ability to apply for NATO membership. The debate intensified with the president Sauli Niinistö after the speech in Finland and a few days later also in Sweden.

In recent days, President Niinistö has discussed with both the Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderssonin that of the Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg with. Discussions have emphasized the importance of dialogue and the fact that NATO’s open door policy has not changed.

Andersson of Sweden also had bilateral talks with NATO Stoltenberg.

In what situation could Finland and Sweden apply for NATO membership? And could either country apply for membership without the other?

HS asked a Finnish and a Swedish security policy expert about NATO policy in Finland and Sweden.

Pete Piirainen is a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute. He has long served as a negotiating officer in the Defense Policy Department of the Department of Defense. According to Piirainen, the intensified telephone conversations primarily indicate that the United States and NATO are trying to prepare as well as possible for next week’s talks with Russia.

“The United States seems to have put its own playbook in order and is now working effectively. Here we want to make sure that everyone has talked to each other and is on the same page, ”says Piirainen.

“It’s about avoiding fragmentation, and that’s very important in that situation.”

Robert Dalsjö is a well – known Swedish security analyst who has also written a report on Sweden and NATO for the Finnish Foreign Policy Institute.

According to Dalsjö, Sweden’s leading politicians took a long time to react to Russia’s demands. According to Dalsjö, there is generally less NATO discussion in Sweden than in Finland, because security policy has not been of great importance to Swedish voters. But now the debate is underway in both countries.

In what situation could Finland apply for NATO membership? What about Sweden?

Pete Piirainen: “The situation is not predetermined or limited. Applying for membership would be based on wide-ranging consideration and would be a political choice. It would be important to prepare the decision both nationally and together with our defense partners and NATO. ”

Robert Dalsjö: “Sweden would apply for NATO membership in two situations. If Finland decides to apply, or if there is a concrete and clear threat to Sweden or its surrounding areas. Russia’s attack on Ukraine would not necessarily mean that Sweden would apply for membership, but it would launch a debate and force the government to take a stand. If the government changes in the autumn elections, the bourgeois parties would like to move in the direction of NATO. ”

Can Finland apply for membership alone?

Pete Piirainen: “Oh. Finland and Sweden make their decisions on the basis of their own national starting points. However, Finland and Sweden are part of a unified defense architecture in the Baltic Sea region, so it would be best to move forward together from this perspective. If only one of the countries joined, a new dividing line would emerge in the Baltic Sea region. It would not benefit anyone, but rather it would be a problem for the stability of the Baltic Sea region. ”

Robert Dalsjö: “I think Finland could do it because Finland is used to thinking for itself. However, if Finland joined without Sweden, there would be a lot of pressure on Sweden to join. Sweden’s omission created a difficult political situation for Sweden and a difficult military situation for NATO. Sweden’s situation vis-à-vis Finland is like a mirror image of the early 1990s, when Finland feared that Sweden would apply for European Community membership without notification. [EU] membership, as it did. “

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Can Sweden apply for membership alone?

Robert Dalsjö: “It would be politically and emotionally difficult if we left Finland. Of course, it would be possible if Finland faced an obstacle in terms of membership, a constitutional or some other situation that would leave Finland behind. But the situation would have to be very dangerous for something like that to happen. ”

What is NATO’s support for in Finland now?

Pete Piirainen: “Support for NATO has increased slightly last year, but there is no sign of any significant change. It will be interesting to see if the brief but lively NATO debate in early January affects the support figures. Or how would the escalation of the war in Ukraine affect the thinking of Finns? ”

What is NATO’s support for in Sweden now?

Robert Dalsjö: “It’s not very big, in the order of about 45 per cent, according to the poll, but it has increased since 2013-2014, when the Commander-in-Chief of the Swedish Defense Forces reported the poor state of Swedish defense and Russia’s conquest of Crimea. That’s when the feeling of danger arose. That Sweden was not prepared and needed help. ”

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How likely is Finland’s NATO membership?

Pete Piirainen: “Depends on the time perspective. The decision to apply for membership would in no way be made in a hurry. Right now, I do not consider it likely to apply for membership. However, the decision depends on the development of the security environment. If necessary, hurry up. As the President of the Republic said in his New Year’s address, it is important to know when to hurry and when to restrain. ”

How likely is Sweden’s NATO membership?

Robert Dalsjö: “I think it is likely because I am pessimistic about Russia. I think Russia is doing something stupid. Probably something military in Ukraine or manage to put pressure on the United States to make concessions, which created a Cold War-like situation and pressure on the Nordic countries. It would put pressure on Sweden, which does not have a credible military capability of its own. If we look 5 to 10 years from now, Sweden will probably be in NATO if NATO still exists then. But if Donald Trump will be President, we do not know what will happen to NATO. ”

What is the defense co-operation between Finland and Sweden like now?

Pete Piirainen: “It is tighter now than ever before. Bilateral defense co-operation between countries shows that co-operation can be deepened on the basis of common interests, even in the absence of treaty obligations. However, Finland-Sweden defense co-operation should not be seen as an alternative to NATO membership. ”

Robert Dalsjö: “It’s really important, and the Swedish Defense Forces and Defense Minister take it seriously. Sweden has a lot of advantages in coordinating its defense with Finland. The Swedish defense is in a much weaker position than the Swedish army suggests. ”

What is the backbone of Finland’s defense?

Pete Piirainen: “Finland’s defense has been strengthened in the long term, both through procurement and by expanding and deepening defense co-operation. The extensive trained reserve also makes us exceptional. Together, these factors make Finland a defense partner with whom we want to co-operate. ”

What is the backbone of Swedish defense?

Robert Dalsjö: “In practice, Sweden is now stronger than before the conquest of Crimea, but we try to give the impression that we are stronger than we really are. Finland is wise and buys military equipment when it needs it and buys it at a good price. Sweden has a Saab that is always hungry and should always be fed. A lot of the money that should go into defense goes to Saab. Partnerships are important for Sweden. The partnership with the United States keeps Sweden relatively secure. Sweden made a mistake in dismantling its defenses at the turn of the millennium, thinking ‘eternal peace has arrived’ and now finds itself without its own defenses. That’s why US help is so important. ”

How would Russia react to Finland’s NATO application?

Pete Piirainen: “Russia has stated its opposition to NATO enlargement. However, it would also be in Russia’s interest that the situation in the Baltic Sea did not escalate and that it maintained effective relations as well With Finland. ”

How would Russia react to Sweden’s NATO application?

Robert Dalsjö: “Russia has been a problem even before this latest situation. If Sweden applied for NATO membership, Russia would blow up and talk and move troops. But blowing up Russia and talking would probably be a temporary problem. Sweden’s membership would be a loss of prestige for Russia rather than a military threat. “