Support for joining NATO could rise even higher if the parties turn to membership, says Johanna Vuorelma.
Investigator Johanna Vuorelma The University of Helsinki estimates that the rise in NATO support in the polls is a “new normal”.
According to him, the level of NATO support in Finland reflects the security policy situation and especially the threat image in Russia.
The threat has now changed in such a fundamental way that it is very unlikely that confidence in Russia as a neighbor will return for a moment.
“In the past, support for NATO has risen slightly as a result of the crises, but then has returned to normal. Now there is such a big change in the European security environment that the same return to the past can hardly be expected, ”Vuorelma writes in an HS e-mail interview.
HS published friday fresh opinion poll, according to which 48 per cent of Finns want Finland to aspire to become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The figure is 20% higher than in a similar survey by HS in early January.
According to the survey, about 27 percent of citizens oppose membership and about 26 percent are unaware.
Read more: 48 per cent of Finns support NATO membership, the number of opponents dropped to about a quarter
The mountain says that the threat image of Russia is exceptionally widely distributed in Europe and has already led to estimates of a paradigm shift.
“If Finland’s political leadership and parties turn to NATO membership, it is very likely that support will rise even higher,” he says.
“Further increase in support is also very likely if Sweden decides to apply for membership. ”
According to Vuorelma, the prevailing view in Finland is that the general opinion about NATO membership is quite permanent, because there have been so few fluctuations over the years.
“Finland has developed an interesting situation in terms of representative democracy, in which citizens and parties observe each other with regard to the formation of positions related to NATO membership,” he says.
“When public opinion has not fluctuated significantly and parties have been reluctant to engage in a political debate on NATO membership, the question of membership has remained latent and replaced by a vague speech about ‘option’.”
The mountain says the political mood towards NATO is undergoing a significant change. However, the reason is not that the parties have finally begun to exercise their agenda in the matter of membership.
Instead, the reason is that the Russian aggression has made the people react, forcing the parties to form a position, or at least to take an active part in the NATO debate.
“In this matter, citizens are now exercising agency power over parties and not the other way around. This can be seen in concrete terms in the two citizens’ initiatives for NATO membership, which are progressing to Parliament. ”
Read more: Yle’s survey: The majority of Finns support Finland’s NATO membership – “Still life has swung to its head”
Read more: Who is calling for a referendum, who is opposed to membership? The HS went through the current NATO positions of the parliamentary parties
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