The Ukrainian foreign affairs official, Andrii Sybihaa few days ago asked NATO for an invitation for Ukraine to become member number 33 without delay. However, the ministerial summit held this Tuesday and Wednesday at the Brussels headquarters concludes without changes. The Atlantic Alliance avoids the thorny issue. Meantime, Ukraine is going through one of its most complicated moments of the conflict, both on a geopolitical and military level.
The pressure of Donald Trump landing in the White House and the good progress of the Russian offensive on the ground anticipates, in the words of the Secretary General himself, Mark Rutte“the most difficult winter for Ukraine since 2022.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently assured that he would be willing to give up territory temporarily so that unoccupied Ukraine is protected under the umbrella of Article 5, the collective defense clause. An atypical formula, but one that has a precedent: Germany was united in 1955 with only its western area.
However, the NATO does not pick up the baton. Mainly, for three reasons. In the corridors of Brussels, the idea prevails that taking this step would be interpreted as a bad sign and a slap in the face by Trump, who will assume the Presidency of the most important ally on January 20. Others like Germany They continue to maintain that it would serve to escalate the conflict and the risk of a more direct clash between the Alliance and Russia. Therefore, there is no unity or unanimity among the 32. And, finally, it could torpedo the path towards a ceasefire that is little by little taking shape when the barrier of 1,000 days of fighting is surpassed.
Rutte dodges the accession bullet and maintains that priority “one, two and three” at the moment is to maintain financial support and the supply of weapons so that kyiv arrives in the greatest possible position of strength at that hypothetical negotiating table. negotiation. “We must do more than simply keep Ukraine in the fight. We must provide it with enough support to change the trajectory of this conflict once and for all,” the former Dutch prime minister said at a press conference.
The shadow of donald trump has planned during the two days of ministerial summit. The strategy of the rest of the countries is to persuade the North American – which in the campaign has assured that it could bring peace to the European neighborhood in 24 hours and has threatened to cut off military aid – with the idea that a weak Ukraine would be counterproductive and a risk for the United States.
“The growing alignment of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran highlights the global nature of the threats we face, including the growing dangers of the ongoing war in Ukraine. In exchange for troops and weapons, Russia is providing North Korea with support for its missile and nuclear programs. These developments could destabilize the Korean peninsula and even threaten USA. So Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine threatens us all,” Rutte detailed.
Ukraine submitted its application to join NATO in September 2022. Years ago, in the 2008 Bucharest Declaration, the Alliance endorsed in writing for the first time that Ukraine’s future was to be part of the Euro-Atlantic defense forum. However, in practical terms not much progress has been made in this direction. At the last Washington summit, held in July, the 32 reiterated their “irreversible path.” At this week’s summit, Rutte simply stressed that this path is “irrevocable.” But the reality is that there is no set calendar.
Everything comes with the Russian offensive in full swing. At headquarters they recognize, publicly and privately, that the evolution of the conflict is worrying and that kyiv is suffering at a time when Russian forces have the initiative. “Ukraine faces incessant shelling of civilian areas and critical infrastructure. And Russia is advancing on the front line, although at a high cost. This could be the most difficult winter for Ukraine since 2022 […]. “Russia intensifies its attacks and expands the war with the help of North Korean troops and weapons,” warns Rutte.
The military sphere is joined by the geopolitical one. Not only championed by the return of Donald Trump. Next Sunday he could win the presidential elections in Romania—a country that shares hundreds of kilometers of border with Ukraine— Calin Georgescuan anti-NATO and pro-Russian candidate. In parallel, Reuters advances details about the plans of Trump and his envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, to force negotiation and a ceasefire between Putin and Zelensky: important transfers of territory to Russia and taking Ukrainian incorporation into NATO off the table.
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