Bombs on Nagorno Karabakh
New war in Nagorno-Karabakh after tensions between Armenia and Russia
Here we are: here’s a new conflict. After the war in Ukraine, another region at the gates of Europe risks falling into the nightmare of war. With Italy observing from the side due to the numerous interests it has with the two countries involved. Dozens of people have already been reported killed and more than 200 injured in Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijan launched what it described as an “anti-terrorism operation” following months of rising tensions in the disputed South Caucasus region. The presidential administration of Azerbaijan declared that the attacks would continue until the surrender of the “illegal Armenian military formations” and the dismantling of the separatist government of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Although Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, some of it is run by separatist Armenian authorities who claim the area is their ancestral homeland. The region has been at the center of two wars – the latest in 2020 – since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia, which operates a military base in Armenia, sent thousands of peacekeepers to the region in 2020 as part of an agreement to end six weeks of hostilities during which Azerbaijan made significant territorial gains in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. Moscow is an important power broker in the region and an ally of Yerevan through the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which met to discuss the situation.
Pay attention to the behind-the-scenes moves of Türkiye, which instead supports Azerbaijan. There are many who note that chaos in the region could further weaken Russia and favor Ankara’s rise. Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. The ensuing conflict claimed around 30,000 lives. The six weeks of fighting in autumn 2020, however, left over 6,500 dead and ended with a ceasefire brokered by Russia. According to the agreementArmenia ceded parts of territory it had controlled for decades and Moscow deployed around 2,000 peacekeepers to monitor the fragile truce.
But in reality the new hostilities come into playthe context of strong tensions between Armenia and Russia. Armenia has repeatedly complained that the Russian peacekeeping force has been unable or unwilling to keep the road to Armenia open, despite this duty being stipulated in the agreement that ended the 2020 war.
Nagorno Karabakh, fears also for Europe and Italy
Armenia has also angered Moscow by holding military exercises with the United States this month and moving towards the ratification of the Rome Convention that created the international criminal court, which indicted Russian President Vladimir Putin. And the situation risks getting out of control even at an internal level. In recent days, thousands of protesters have gathered in the center of Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, blocking the streets and asking the authorities to defend the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. Some clashed with police, who reportedly used stun grenades. With dozens injured.
Europe is also observing the situation with understandable fear, Italy first and foremost. Yes, because after the break with Moscow, the European Union has turned to Azerbaijan in recent months to double the supply by 2027, to receive 20 billion cubic meters by that date. The memorandum of understanding was signed in July 2022 by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, at the presidential residence in Zagulba.
The agreement has already foreseen an intermediate stage, col transition from 8.1 billion cubic meters to 12 billion supplies. And it will be achieved thanks to TAP, the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, which represents the last section of the Southern Gas Corridor, and arrives in Puglia. However, Baku’s possible involvement in a regional war could also have an impact on energy supplies. Just what no one needs right now. This also explains Italy’s currently not entirely clear position on the conflict.
#Nagorno #Karabakh #chaos #ArmeniaRussia #dispute #Gas #risk