MPS-Poste, 4 billion with privatization. But watch out for the profits: 300 million less

Privatization of MPS-Poste? Great proceeds, but watch out for lower dividends

First quarter of the year with growth for the main companies listed and participated by the MEF in the industry and services sector: Enav, Enel, Eni, Fincantieri, Italgas, Leonardo, Poste Italiane, Rai Way, Saipem, Snam, STMicrolectronics, Terna. Turnover reached 59.4 billion euros (+16.6%) and profits were higher than 5.3 billion euros with an increase of 121.7% compared to the same period in 2023.

To process the data the CoMar – Study Center based on the financial communications of the individual companies. Ebitda was also very positive, growing year on year by 236.4%, reaching over 14.1 billion euros. Net financial debt, again as of March 31, stood at 110.9 billion euros. In detail, turnover increased mainly for Leonardo (+20.7%), Terna (+20.4%), Saipem (+18%). It fell for Enel, STMicroelectronics, Eni. The highest growth in Ebitda was recorded by Enav (+69.6%), Leonardo (+41.6%), Saipem (+40.3%). For profit growth, Leonardo (+1,141.6%), Enel (+86.7%) and Enav (+37.1%) stand out.

In detail, at the moment, the Ministry of Economy and Finance owns: 26.73% of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, from which it will collect over 88.9 million euros in dividends in the first quarter of this year; 53.3% of Enav is valid for 2023 dividends of 66 million euros; 23.6% of Is in thefrom which over 500 million euros will arrive in the first three months; Eni from which it will collect a total of 400 million in the first quarter between the share of the MEF and that of CDP; 30.2% of Leonardo from which over 150 million euros will come and, finally, 29.26% of Italian post (CDP owns another 35%), from which a total of 1.22 billion will come.

This “treasure”, however, is estimated taking into account the moves already made by government Melons on the chessboard of so-called privatizations. In fact, the government aims to raise around 20 billion euros from the sale of shares of its holdings.

But let’s try to see how much the State would earn from the sale of the shares of its subsidiaries according to the latest rumors on the government’s intentions. According to rumors, starting from Mps, the Sienese bank should be completely liquidated. To date, with a capitalization of 6.21 billion euros, the sale would yield 1.65 billion euros, but with a loss of over 80 million in dividends.

Subsequently, too Italian post plays a leading role in the government’s plans to replenish the state coffers. In this case, however, there is some confusion. While a few months ago the Executive had announced that it did not want to go below 35% of the capital, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni relaunched by setting the limit at 51%.

To date, therefore, between the share of Mef and that of Cdpthe state owns 64% of Italian post. In case the government decides to stop at 51% and chooses to dilute its share without touching that of Deposit Bank and Loans, then it should yield 13%. The figure, therefore, would stand at 2.17 billion euros in the event of a sale. At the same time, however, with the sale the Treasury would lose a portion of dividends equal to approximately 135 million euros. Not crumbs. Therefore, the two privatizations would be successful Mps And Post office the Treasury would immediately collect over 3 billion and 800 million euros, but also more than 300 million less in dividends.

However, the future of state Railways. In fact, the government has been putting the group on for some time Fs in the sights of privatizations, but no square has yet been found. The path, in fact, is rather tortuous as the group is nothing more than a conglomerate of different activities, some of which cannot be listed on the stock exchange. And this last factor constitutes one of the most difficult issues to resolve, as it makes it difficult to understand how to define the liquid value of the group. All that remains is to stay tuned to the Executive’s next plans.