Confidential diplomatic sources: the turnover of troops at the border will continue, we must protect the Donbass
New York. Proceeding with the recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk is not the prerogative of Moscow, but it is a reminder for those who row against the Minsk agreements. Important diplomatic sources familiar with the Ukrainian dossier explain this to La Stampa. When we hear them in Moscow it is 5.15 am on Wednesday morning, the X hour of the attack – as anticipated by Western intelligence – must have already struck. “The facts have already denied them, but it was foreseeable – they explain -. Now they will say that they have been so good at intimidating Russia that Moscow has decided to cancel the attack ».
The situation therefore remains the same, the only change is that, after completing some training phases, Moscow has given orders to transfer some military units elsewhere. «It is part of the routine, indeed there will be other similar changes in the coming days but this does not mean anything in the general picture. On the military level, the exercises continue as scheduled. On the political one, however – they underline – Ukraine is only a small piece of the mosaic of the crisis, a freezing of his candidacy will not be enough ». In Moscow’s eyes, the Alliance must demonstrate that it does not have the enlargement trend that has characterized it for over 15 years, despite the promises and the status quo established in the NATO-Russia agreements of 1997.
What Russia wants is to return to the conditions established 25 years ago, but “without anyone who joined NATO after that date renounces their membership”. In short, Moscow expects guarantees that armaments, infrastructures and forces will not be positioned in areas even further east than the countries that joined the Atlantic Pact after 1997. However, it is not certain that a NATO adjustment will be followed by a recall of Russian troops from the western borders of the country.
Moreover, the movements near the western border had already occurred in the past, in April for example. The point is that according to Moscow “as long as Kiev derails the implementation of the Minsk agreements” (approved by the UN Security Council with resolution 2202 of 2015) and threatens the people of Donbass, it will not be possible to lighten the border guards without first careful consideration. “But this does not mean” that Putin wants to attack.
It is precisely around the Minsk agreements that the crisis revolves, given that their implementation has been a problem from the beginning, due to differences on many of the 13 points. In particular, on what establishes the transfer of control of the eastern border to Ukraine, but only after having held local elections, accompanied by an amnesty and a law on the special statute of Donbass approved by the Rada. «All this must be done with direct talks between Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk as reiterated several times in the agreements. But this is precisely one of the reasons for the rejection of the Ukrainians, because from the beginning they said that the two provinces do not have the right to have this dialogue. How can the Minsk agreements be implemented if one does not even agree on the principles contained therein? ”.
However, Moscow remains convinced that there are no alternatives to resolving the crisis in Eastern Ukraine, because there are no other valid international roadmaps, but fears that they will not be implemented if Kiev’s attitude does not change. And this is where the motion of the Duma comes in, which is not the first, given that there have been other similar initiatives in the past: “This reflects the general sentiment in Russia, there is a lot of concern for compatriots in Donbass, since when Kiev broke off relations with them. Since he no longer paid his pensions, since they have not been able to renew their passports except at the risk of being arrested or subject to retaliation, many have taken the Russian passport because it was the only way to survive ».
The recognition option has therefore always been on the table, but this does not mean that Vladimir Putin wants to proceed. “I’d rather say it’s a reminder in case Ukraine continues to sabotage the Minsk agreements.” But which risks generating a casus belli, or not? “If Kiev embarks on any military adventure in Donbass, Moscow will not be able to tolerate it, whether there is Russian recognition or not.”
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