Modi is proclaimed winner of the elections in India with a narrower victory than expected

At around nine o’clock on Tuesday night, local time, Narendra Modi declared himself the winner of the elections in India. Although the scrutiny is not yet over, the coalition led by his party, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, Indian People’s Party), appears to have managed to retain the majority in the largest general elections on the planet. The situation places the 73-year-old leader of the Hindu nationalist formation one step away from securing a historic third term at the head of the most populous country on Earth, with nearly 80% of the total seats already counted and awarded. The victory, however, has a certain bittersweet aftertaste for the leader, after the BJP has suffered an electoral blow that neither the projections nor the exit polls had anticipated. Modi will have to deal, for the first time, with the fact that his party has not alone achieved half plus one of the seats in the Lok Sabha (the lower House of Parliament, which will be in charge of investing him), as in the previous two legislatures, which will require him to weave political balances with his government partners.

The opposition alternative, an alliance of more than 20 parties led by the Congress Party (PdC), with Rahul Gandhi at the helm, has managed to go head-to-head with the BJP for the first time in a decade, although it would have been left without real options of form an Executive.

With the numbers still provisional on the table, the current prime minister would secure the leadership of India for the third consecutive time, which places him at the same level as Jawaharlal Nehru, the first head of Government after independence. His mandate would, however, be subject for the next five years to the capricious, fluid and unstable friendships of Indian politics, and to greater oversight by a strengthened opposition. The fall in the number of voters goes some way to indicating that there is exhaustion with the Modi era. But it also underlines the lasting impact of a leader who will go down in Indian history. Under him, the country has gained impact on the international scene and surpassed the United Kingdom in terms of GDP to become the fifth largest economy in the world. Before the end of this term, Modi aims to place India in third place, only behind the United States and China. But it has, on the other side of the balance, the growing concern of international organizations and institutions about the deterioration in democratic standards, the decline in respect for rights and freedoms, and the growing harassment of the opposition, minorities and critical voices.

The National Democratic Alliance, led by the ruling BJP, would have obtained 291 seats out of the 543 in the Lok Sabha, 52 seats below the 2019 result, according to projections on the media’s counted vote. India Today around 10:00 p.m. in Delhi (6:30 p.m. Spanish peninsular time). The opposition, which had been warning for weeks that there could be surprises in the final count, would have secured 234 seats, 107 more than five years ago. The BJP, in any case, would be left with 240 seats, 63 below those obtained in 2019, and without managing to exceed the 272 with which the parliamentary majority is reached. Meanwhile, the PdC would almost double its presence in the Lok Sabha, with 99, according to partial official data from the Election Commission.

The scrutiny, tighter than expected, has given rise to moments of speculation throughout the day. Modi dispelled the doubts around nine at night, when she arrived by car at the BJP headquarters, shielded by police and military, and surrounded by hundreds of supporters who chanted her name when she saw him pass by. From there, before a colorful crowd, she assured that she will form a Government with her alliance “for the third consecutive time” and thanked her voters. “Today’s victory is the victory of the largest democracy in the world and its constitution,” she said.

The headquarters of both parties have begun to receive the influx of supporters from mid-afternoon. “Modi inspires me. He is doing a good job for India,” Ratan Rajan, 31, a willing cyclist who has been pedaling thousands of kilometers from the State of Bihar, in the east of the country, said at the door of the BJP headquarters. On the carrier he carries an almost life-size cardboard cutout of Modi. He is dressed in a kurta Traditional Indian saffron color, the shade of the match. “He has the vision of making India a developed nation. That’s why people voted for him.”

At the Congress Party headquarters, in the afternoon, when Modi has not yet declared himself the winner, the atmosphere seemed one of victory, despite the fact that the numbers did not add up. The drums thundered, people began to dance and waved the formation’s flags. Aashif Sagar, a member of the Samajwadi Party (Socialist Party), one of the strong formations of the opposition alliance, called India, was there. He claims to be convinced that they will manage to form an opposition government. He is from Uttar Pradesh, a gigantic state (the most populated: 240 million people), agricultural and very impoverished, which usually opens the door to victory in Delhi. Without the count finished, the battle in this region was very even. “The citizens were so tired that they decided to throw out the Government,” says Manju Dixit, vice president of the PdC Women’s Committee in New Delhi. When she replied that there was nothing to indicate that they were going to win, she settled: “Time will tell. “We are happy with the alliance and with the nation’s response.”

The leaders of the opposition bloc seemed not to give up. With the count already advanced, they have not clarified whether they would try to form a Government. “We will decide tomorrow after discussing with our partners,” said Rahul Gandhi. “The country has made a gigantic statement that they do not want Mr. Modi or Amit Shah [ministro del Interior] are involved in the management of the country. We don’t like the way you attack the Constitution,” Gandhi said.

The scrutiny of the largest elections in the world, which began more than six weeks ago, began this Tuesday morning, after the last polls closed on Saturday. In this gigantic act of democracy, more than 640 million people of the 970 million called – more than 10% of the world’s population – have voted, with a participation of around 66%, according to official data.

The elections have been held in a polarized climate, with debates that have revolved around inflation and unemployment, respect for the rule of law and the harassment of minorities, particularly Muslims. In the campaign, the opposition alternative has accused Modi’s Hindu nationalist party of undermining democracy in India during its decade in power and of pursuing a majority sufficient to force a constitutional change to erase Indian secularism from its articles.

Rural India has been a key piece of the puzzle, as shown by the electoral response in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan: “History is being written in rural India,” noted one of the commentators of India Today during its live broadcast. “People don’t have jobs, they want something more than five kilos of rice rations,” added another commentator in reference to the food aid programs launched by the Modi Executive.

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