Military expert explains the situation in Kursk

When will Putin react to the situation in Kursk? According to one expert, Russia is initially pursuing other plans – and could face problems later.

Almost a month after crossing the border, the Ukrainian army is still holding out in the Russian region of Kursk – and according to military expert Nico Lange, there is no sign that Putin’s forces will put an end to the operation. Russia seems to have “no interest at all” in recapturing the area at the moment, he said in an interview with IPPEN.MEDIA.

Ukraine has “stabilized” in Kursk: Russia faces “high losses”

There could be a calculation behind this, says the senior fellow of the Munich Security Conference. “Russia continues to attack on many fronts in Ukraine,” he stresses. “I have a bit of the impression that Russia wants to advance as far as possible in Ukraine first and only then deal with Kursk.” A “dualism” can currently be observed: Ukraine has been successful in Kursk; on the other hand, the situation in Donbass is “difficult” for Kiev’s army.

Regardless of this, a military counterattack in the Kursk Oblast would not be an easy undertaking for Russia. “Ukraine has not only advanced far, but has also been able to stabilize itself there. That means, for example, securing the flanks, destroying bridges,” explains Lange. “If Russia were to concentrate on retaking it now, it would be very costly and also associated with high losses.”

Concern about Kursk nuclear power plant: Expert Lange does not expect any fighting – “You can’t drive there by car”

The expert takes a sober look at Russian warnings of an escalation at the Kursk nuclear power plant. An advance to the nuclear power plant is “not at all feasible” for Ukraine, said Lange IPPEN.MEDIAThe power plant is located 70 kilometers deep inland: “You can’t just drive there by car, you would have to advance there on a broad front. I don’t think that’s realistic.”

This scenario is more likely an “invention” of observers. The Kremlin has an interest in “continually bringing topics into the discourse that have something to do with the keyword ‘nuclear'” in the Ukraine war, explained Lange. “Because we know that the media, but also the politicians here, always react very sensitively to the words ‘atomic’ or ‘nuclear’.” Recently, however, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, also warned of dangers. One reason is the design of the nuclear power plant, which is similar to that of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

Kursk gives Ukraine an advantage in negotiations: “Something it can bring in”

Lange is clear, however, with regard to Vladimir Putin’s much-vaunted “red lines”. After the attack on Kursk, the reason for escalation is no longer an attack on Russian territory, as was previously the case, but on the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg. The “red line” has apparently shifted back when it was crossed. This leads to the conclusion “that these red lines are not actually red lines”.

Lange sees advantages for Ukraine from the Kursk operation. The element of surprise, the fighting on Russian territory and the prisoners of war – many of whom are conscripts – have improved their negotiating position. “Now I don’t think you can swap country for country, but if talks start now, Ukraine will definitely have a better negotiating position and something to bring to the table,” he says.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday (September 2) that the advance in Kursk was going according to plan and that the objectives were being achieved. For example, more than 600 Russian soldiers had been taken prisoner. Putin On the same day, he referred to the high “tempo” of his offensive in the Donbass. He called the Ukrainian troops in Kursk “bandits”. (Florian Naumann)