Mexico City.– The country will face a much tougher stance in the revision of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) in 2026, the dispute on energy issues, the commercial terms of nearshoring and the fight against drug trafficking if Donald Trump wins the Presidency of the United States again, warned the Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF).
Mario Correa, vice president of the IMEF’s National Committee for Economic Studies, said that with the election of his running mate, Senator James David Vance for the Vice Presidency of the United States, pressure is expected, since he is someone who has very hardline positions that coincide with those of Trump.
“We can see that this stance will be much tougher, more difficult, if Trump were to win the Presidency of the United States. What we already know that President Trump did in his first term, what we already know and are aware of what has been expressed and even what the person who will be his Vice President has commented on in the election formula, I think makes it clear that at least we are going to see a much tougher stance on the part of the United States in the negotiations.
“The revision of the free trade agreement is coming, remembering that Trump at the time used different types of, if not threats, at least warnings of applying tariffs even outside the legislation and established agreements to obtain some of the things he wanted from Mexico. So I think that something that is coming is a much tougher position in the negotiations on the part of the United States,” Correa said at a press conference.
In a complex global environment with significant trade frictions with China, the United States will need Mexico’s cooperation on many key issues such as restructuring supply chains, but the way to obtain it may not necessarily be in the most friendly way, the analyst added.
“We’ve seen this in the past: Trump is a very tough person to negotiate with; he likes to negotiate very forcefully, and in fact, making warnings if not very clear threats to get what he wants. So, if he wins the presidency, I think we’re going to have a very complicated environment to negotiate these issues.
“Of course, issues such as energy will be put on the radar, issues of the entire recomposition of chains in the revision of the free trade agreement and the issue of the fight against drug trafficking. I think that will be central for the next government and that is where there could be a lot of pressure on the Mexican government,” he said.
Pemex, the great challenge for Luz Elena González at Sener
The financial situation of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) is the main challenge that Luz Elena González Escobar, who will be in charge of the Ministry of Energy (Sener) in the Government of Claudia Sheinbaum, will have to face, considered the IMEF.
Pemex has negative equity of around 96 billion dollars, a financial debt of more than 110 billion dollars and a debt with suppliers of around 22 billion dollars, said José Domingo Figueroa, national president of IMEF.
“We believe that the appointment of Luz Elena González as Secretary of Energy is appropriate, but one of the great challenges she faces is Pemex and important decisions will have to be made.
“We have analyzed that one of Pemex’s biggest problems is refining: the more Pemex refines, the greater the losses; in this sense, we believe that the new Secretary of Energy and whoever she appoints as director of Pemex should work from that perspective,” said Figueroa.
The IMEF has outlined that four of the main challenges for the next government are the deficit, the review of the T-MEC, Pemex and the opportunities for relocating companies. Two of these challenges involve Sener: the one that has to do with Pemex and taking advantage of nearshoring in regards to the generation of clean and sufficient energy to make the opportunity attractive for companies to come and locate in the country, commented Figueroa.
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