Because Meloni’s foreign policy will not displease the US. On the contrary…
Extreme right. With this formula the future government that every probability will have is stamped Giorgia Meloni as its prime minister. On most international media, the definitions “hard-right” and “far-right” are used and, in many cases, a possible destructive effect on relations between Italy and the European Union is implied, sometimes doubts are also advanced on relations between Italy and the United States above all due to the pro-Russian crushes of the allies of the Brothers of Italy.
Beyond the identity issues of what has become the first Italian party, its relations and its possible internal policy, on the foreign policy front, however, may perhaps change less than expected. If you read the international newspapers, you can see that celebrating are mainly those who were once called “Eurosceptics” and today are defined as “sovereignists” such as Viktor Orban, Marine Le Pen, the Spanish Vox party or Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Jakub Morawiecki.
But this it does not in any way mean that the probable Meloni government will not be on Euro-Atlantic positions, with the second part of the word that will certainly have a preponderant role. On the contrary. If Morawiecki and Warsaw are often “problems” for the European Union, as demonstrated by the many clashes in recent years with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyern, for Washington they are perhaps the most precious European ally on the Ukrainian question.
There Poland and the belt of the north-central-eastern countries is the most decisive in following the US line on Russia and Kiev, as per tradition. Those known to be the Visegrad countries have always had excellent relations with the White House. Even Orban’s Hungary has been defined as an ally in the US NATO sphere, despite the direct line open between Budapest and the Kremlin.
Brothers of Italy, moreover, the group of conservatives belongs to the European Parliament where the Poles and the Central-Eastern European parties have a considerable weight. In short, no compromise on the Russian front, unlike Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi. D.Certainly the Meloni government will initiate a dialectic that can sometimes even be harsh with Brusselsbut those who imagine “Italian Brexit” scenarios seem to be quite far from reality.
The influence of Draghi and Mattarella
Throughout his election campaign, Meloni has also shown that he wants to be considered reliable. Both by Mario Draghi, who could also be pushed towards the post of NATO secretary general in 2023 as Jens Stoltenberg was renewed until 2023. A move, which arrived in recent months and which came instead of the appointment of a successor, which allows Draghi to aim for the actual succession.
Not to mention Sergio Mattarella, who will make his voice heard on the appointment of all the most critical ministers in the field of international relations. From the Economy to the Defense, from the Interior to the Foreign, it is legitimate to expect names of level and perhaps without a strong connotation at the party level. Which for the Quirinale would guarantee a certain continuity on the fundamentals of Italy’s international posture.
Here is that for example Elisabetta Belloni is named for the Farnesina, after it had already been in the running for the Quirinale. A “technical” and expert name that would ensure rootedness in a firmly Atlanticist position but without even extreme or “Trumpian” head shots, scenarios to which the appointment of other names circulated in recent weeks would open.
Meloni’s positions on Russia and China
On the other hand, on the other great issue of international politics that is dear to Washington, Meloni has never shown hesitation. We are talking about China, has long since become the real priority of the United States. Even more so in Italy, where since 2019 the American headlights have been lit with high beams after the decision of the yellow-green government to sign the memorandum of understaning to join the Belt and Road Initiative.
Then the counterattack lasted very little. Matteo Salvini, who passed into the opposition after the Papeete, reinvented himself anti-Chinese and even the Five Star Movement then led by Luigi Di Maio reversed and returned to the usual Euro-Atlantic shores. The former foreign minister went from Emmanuel Macron’s yellow vests to welcome Mike Pompeo, then secretary of state in Rome, with the red carpet.
Here, with Meloni there is no doubt. Nor on China, where Meloni has always been very critical and stated several times during the election campaign that he has no plans to renew the Belt and Road deal. On the subject she is totally Atlanticist and close to the United States, especially of the republican brand this is clear, but on the other hand, in a couple of years the Republicans could return to the White House. And in recent weeks overseas too have made it clear that Joe Biden did not consider Meloni’s probable victory as “the end of the world”. Indeed, he would be ready to cooperate. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton also gave her consent to the Melonian government.
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