The Dutch weekend still has a lot to say, especially given the expected conditions, but on the first day of free practice the first impressions were quite clear. McLaren has shown no issues with its new package of upgrades so far and actually appears to have upped the ante in terms of both the level of downforce available to the car and the set-up options. The impression, looking at the data, is of a setup that the Woking team has prepared to be able to perfect tyre management, an aspect that will certainly be very delicate in the race, and Lando Norris’ long run was truly remarkable. The data shows that the updated MCL38 expresses a high level of downforce (with all the indicators in its favor) but is not the best performing car in the very high speed sections, especially turn 7, a section that in qualifying the drivers will probably try to take flat out. The impression is that the choice of a high downforce is also combined with a certain softness of the suspensionespecially in roll, to better manage kerbs, bumps and slow corners, as well as to improve tyre management. We will see how the behaviour of Norris and Piastri’s car will evolve for qualifying, with the great curiosity of giving a concrete value to the package of updates brought to the Dutch track. We know that the ability of the team led by Andrea Stella has been, starting from last season, to not make even one mistake in updating, unlike all the rivals on the trackand, if what was glimpsed in free practice turns out to be correct, this last seasonal step could also be in line with the previous ones.
RedBull fast yes, but only with Max and not enough (and always very stiff)
At Red Bull the experiments continue, even in Max Verstappen’s home race. The signal is certainly not the best: the certainties that seemed to characterise the multiple world champions until the recent past have now completely vanishedwith the team looking for a technical team for many races now, but so far without really having success. Only the talent of the Dutch Champion seems at this moment to be the factor to keep the team fighting for the victory, but with increasingly complicated situations on the track. The Milton Keynes car shows, once again, its best in the high-speed corners, thanks also to a basic set-up rigidity that we know is an essential component on the RB20, with a turn 7 taken like no one today. But the set-up adopted so far at Red Bull seems particularly penalizing on traction: given that, obviously, there could be an engine map that is not particularly powerful, the performance on the exit of the corners seems to be very lacking for Verstappen, also for a reason of line delay, probably due to the difficulties of managing the car by the driver, an aspect that is greatly amplified for Sergio Perez. In the long run Verstappen settled on the medium, a couple of tenths from Norris, but with a first part on medium tyres where the Englishman had shown much wider differentials with the Dutchman, often over half a second. Given the constant revolutions at Red Bull, it is difficult to predict how they will take to the track for qualifying.but given today’s performances, the home team is not currently starting as the weekend’s favourite.
Mercedes fast, but with a set-up more for qualifying than for the race
Behind the McLarens, Mercedes should probably be placed, perhaps even before Max Verstappenas an order of performance seen on the track. On the single lap the speed of the W15, updated and also strong in very favorable conditions with very low temperatures of both the air and the asphalt, appeared significant, with Russell at the same level as Verstappen in the fast sections and McLaren in the slower ones, and with, as the only uncertainty, the complicated braking of the chicane of turns 11-12. Seeing the race pace, however, the Brackley single-seater gives the impression that the set-up brought to the track is not particularly gentle on the tires, with a growth curve of Russell’s times on soft tires practically exponential. Hamilton himself confirmed after the session that the chosen set-up was “a bit too much geared towards qualifying” but this gives us the opportunity for further reasoning in terms of the race.
Overtaking almost impossible: qualification also crucial for set-up choices (and keep an eye on the weather)
Looking at the last races, in fact, we notice how the overtaking difficulties have grown exponentially in this phase of the season. and on a track like Zandvoort the “train effect” is almost to be taken for granted. At this point the starting position becomes fundamental, so one wonders how much the teams will sacrifice race performance to ensure a better start on the flying lap and vice versa. Not only that: the rain forecast for qualifying will make the work of teams and drivers even more difficult as well as offering a chance to those who currently appear slower. The rain forecast for Saturday will also have an additional importance in terms of the race. The soft tyre has in fact appeared unable to withstand, at the moment, a long race stint, and there is some fear among the teams about using the hard tyre as the very low temperatures make the warm up very complicated and favor the onset of graining. The ideal would be to have a very rubberized track that would allow the use of the soft tyre for a part of the race, but if it rained and the track returned to green the strategic options for the Grand Prix would become open and difficult to predict.
Ferrari in trouble: lack of load and in the cold the tires do not light up. Lots of work to do but for now a weekend of “catenaccio”
Finally, the news on Friday from the Maranello team was not particularly positive. After a brief and unique flash by Sainz in the first free practice sessions, in the second session the Spaniard was sidelined by a major transmission problem, while Leclerc never found confidence on the flying lap or on the race pace. The flying lap data, even without numbers, speak very clearly, with an almost linear growth of the gap indicating a massive lack of grip compared to the leaders. It is noticeable how the missing grip is almost more on the longitudinal axis than on the lateral one, with Leclerc without the necessary confidence to brake at the limit and at the same time late on the opening of the throttle practically at every corner. The cold, the historic enemy of the SF24, worsens an already critical situation this weekend for Ferrariwith a lack of load that requires the intervention of further updates as soon as possible (given the difficulties with the latest package) and that on the Dutch track is felt in a significant way. If therefore for the red it was already a weekend in defense, with these conditions it becomes a real “catenaccio”, given however that the night work could lead at least to setups that guarantee more “dignified” positions and gaps than what was seen in the free practices, while waiting for more favorable tracks and, above all, the corrections promised by the engineers. Many scenarios remain open for the rest of the weekend, between the particular track and the windy and continuously variable conditions.
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