To attend to the messages of the financial markets that critics who lost their temper are exaggerating presidential election on June 2then it would turn out that the mandate of the polls would have been a bad joke of the democracy procedural. A call from the President López Obrador to the dominant financial bloc to ask who his successor should be.
The same analysts who signed a poster requesting a direct vote in favor of the PRIAN opposition candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiznow they are the ones who tear their clothes crying that the six-year transition process does not comply with the mandate of the polls but rather that it adjusts to the market panics who are only seeking to maintain their speculative profit rates.
The ghost of the error of December 1994-June 1995 waves like the dead man’s duffel bag, but few have the sensitivity to review the context of what happened in that event: a economic inheritance of empty reserves on the part of President Salinas de Gortari and his refusal to devalue so as not to go down in history, the incompetence of the Zedillo Secretary of the Treasury, Jaime Serra Puche, who moved the exchange rate band and generated an impressive flight of capital and the corpse of Luis Donaldo Colosio that Salinas went to throw him at Zedillo’s office and that Zedillo returned it to Salinas’ house.
One fact removes any panic from the mechanical reproduction of historical events: in December 1994, the international reserves of the Bank of Mexico were less than 1,000 million dollars and today they are more than 212,000 million dollars, enough to liquidate any speculative assault. According to reports from the Bank of Mexico in 1984, the political crisis that erupted in Salinas due to his failure in managing the presidential succession and emptying dollar reserves trying to avoid devaluation. The panic in capital flight modes had real reasons: the kidnapping of the banker Alfredo Harp Helú, the murder of Colosio, the tantrum of Jorge Carpizo McGregor when he resigned from the Ministry of the Interior, the murder of José Francisco Ruiz Massieu and the information of the meeting on November 20 at Salinas’ house when Zedillo asked for devaluation and Pedro Aspe Armella threatened to break out a political crisis because he did not want to shoulder that burden. The burning of almost 30,000 million reserves in the 1994 crisis caused the December error.
In 1994 there was an outgoing president destroyed in his political ability and an incoming president who continues to carry to this day the heavy legacy of having been the beneficiary of the Colosio assassination.
The political crisis scenarios of 2024 that could threaten the stock and exchange markets are much smaller and find a trans-exennial ruling bloc stronger than ever, in addition to the fact that this year the problem is the loss of privileges of castes of bureaucrats who do not They want campaign promises to reform state bureaucracies to be fulfilled. And there is a fundamental detail: the current neoliberal macroeconomic stability does not give the markets justification to panic due to ideological fears. And the fear of the markets is not due to macroeconomic policies, but to defend the system of privileges of the system/regime/State/Constitution of the PRI-PAN strategic alliance 1988-2018 that was crushed in the past June 2nd.
There, in the electoral balance, the contest of forces will be defined between the speculative business power of the stock and financial markets and the political power of the State that defines the decision-making style of the President of the Republic and what was very clear from the beginning. : the designation of Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo as guarantor of the transexennial validity of the 4-T economic model and the commitment to build in the 2024-2030 six-year period the second floor of a long-term project that achieved support in the form of qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies for Brunette.
If the elected president hesitates in making decisions in the face of the first provocative picket from the speculative financial and stock markets and the outgoing president agrees to postpone the approval of the reforms to the neoliberal Salinist State beyond next September, then the 4-T will remain as a six-year anecdote and the room for maneuver of the next six-year period 2024-2030 will be subordinated to a few pressures from interest groups with the old neoliberal Salinist regime.
The scenario is clear: either reforms to the State or neoliberal governance.
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