María Corina Machado has become a political brand in itself. In just over a year she has won practically the entire opposition vote and her name represents anti-Chavismo more than anyone else. Since Chávez’s Hugo in 1998, a similar electoral phenomenon has not been remembered. During this time, Machado has focused on her right-wing positions and appeals more to change and illusion than direct criticism of the current president, Nicolás Maduro. Chavismo has done the impossible so that she cannot confront Maduro and she has achieved it: she has disqualified her from electoral terms for the next 15 years. That would have ended anyone’s career, but Machado has such a drive that he has given all his capital to an unknown, a 74-year-old academic named Edmundo González Urrutia, and yet he leads the polls above Maduro and is already knows the entire Venezuela. Hurricane Machado threatens 25 years of Bolivarian revolution.
“The feeling of change, the opposition to the Government as a social movement, has long been the majority in Venezuela,” says political analyst and director of the Dataincorp firm, Jesús Seguías. “In the last primary elections, people also punished the traditional leadership of the opposition for its failures, and since then that is María Corina Machado’s moment,” he says, adding that she “has added an addition” to this aspiration of change. “Machado has already crossed the limits of the opposition. She is a national leader and embodies a widespread illusion in the country.”
Seguías affirms that the transmission of the mandate from Machado to Edmundo has occurred perfectly, but objects to the guardianship that she continues to have in the political operation, stating that she should hand over control to González Urrutia to make a transition to democracy feasible. This is yet to be done, for the moment Machado still has the lead. In his campaign command there is an atmosphere of contained euphoria and still a certain surprise when verifying the magnitude of the popular rallies that he calls for. There are people who walk kilometers to join their caravans, the arrival at each town is preceded by long lines of motorized vehicles. Many activists from his command witness greetings from military personnel at the checkpoints.
A focus group organized by the Popular Research Center, directed by sociologists Mirla Pérez and Alexander Gurrero, currently identifies Venezuela as a society where community life has been reborn in its poorest strata due to precariousness; in which, unlike what happened in the past, Chavista social programs – particularly the CLAP boxes, which are monthly food bags – are unpopular and rejected, although they are also needed by the population.
“No woman in this country will ever bow her head for a Clap bag again,” Machado said at a mass rally in the city of Mérida, in the Andean region of the country, another stop on her tour. “This regime has already been defeated. Our children will return to Venezuela, we will reunite with our families and we will rebuild our country. Have no doubt, we will win.”
“I don’t really like using these types of terms, because they will depend on their validity and fleetingness, but if we stick strictly to the concept, María Corina Machado is, of course, a political phenomenon,” says Diego Bautista Urbaneja, writer and essayist, member of the Venezuelan Academy of History. “An image that is a symbol, a popular fervor. It remains to be known how long its roots will be, how deep. The facts will tell that.”
While this is happening, the Chavista leadership, particularly leaders like Jorge Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello, are completely confident of Maduro’s victory, who is also launching an intense campaign and touring the country with the help of a daily bombardment of multimedia advertising in his favor. According to reliable polls, Maduro’s approval rating has increased from 21% to 25%. These same polls give Edmundo González the victory by a fair margin.
Recently, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López made some uncomfortable statements at the end of the military parade commemorating the Battle of Carabobo, which gave Venezuela its independence in 1821. Padrino described what, for him, is the country’s current crossroads: “We will have to clear the dilemma of returning to colonialism, to surrender, to pro-imperialism, or being on the side of the insurgent, brave, courageous, Bolivarian and anti-imperialist homeland.”
And referring to the opposition, he said (with Maduro, dressed as a soldier, present at his side): “The factious who failed yesterday and are making the same mistakes again, must know that Venezuela and its Armed Forces were refounded by the Bolivarian revolution and that we will maintain a dignified, sovereign and independent homeland.”
While Chavismo makes these veiled threats, its militancy protests at Machado’s campaign events. These cries are silenced by Machado’s followers, who multiply the Chavistas. This has happened in El Vigía, El Sombrero, Barbacoas, San Juan de los Morros, Las Mercedes del Llano, Ospino and other towns in deep Venezuela, where before the roots were Chavista.
Opposition leaders who accompany Machado – Delsa Solórzano and Andrés Velásquez, for example – collect an astonishing repertoire of crucifixes that the population gives them. Machado has delayed up to a day in arriving at the town that he had on his agenda because he has to stop at other hamlets along the way. This has just happened to him in San Cristóbal, capital of Táchira state. There are many stories of Chavista militants who attend the rallies in their work uniforms. The opposition’s car tours around the country – for several years the government has imposed a ban on them taking airplanes – are reported in very brief terms by the country’s media.
People find out what is happening thanks to the videos that the attending population takes with their phones, whi
ch go viral on social networks. On some occasions, the leader has had to jump trails, cross rivers, open roads or take alternative paths with the help of neighbors and locals to be able to reach San Carlos, Tinaquillo, Araure, south of Lake Maracaibo, or the coast of Falcón, in the face of the obstacles placed by the Government, which penalizes with fines or partial closures those hotels that offer Machado and his team accommodation or provide sound service to their events.
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